You are assuming that the parts of Raleigh that were placed in the NC-04 wouldn’t have made the NC-02 less Republican had they been placed in the NC-02. Raleigh is too big to place all of it in the black-majority NC-02 (unless you *really* gerrymander it to extract white parts of the rural counties) and too Democrat to place it in the NC-02 without giving Etheridge a good chance of winning it back.
As for Hickory, they removed it because they wanted McHenry to take on all of those Democrat precincts in Asheville, so Hickory had to go so as to (i) keep the NC-10 within the population limit and (ii) keep McHenry’s base within the district. I don’t think that redistricters should have drawn a district for the express purpose of defeating McHenry, even if you think that he’s an empty suit (personally, I think that he’s a principled conservative and hope that he runs for the Senate in 2014). I would love for Walter Jones and Virginia Foxx to be sent packing, but I wouldn’t expect the legislature to try to kick them out.
As for Carteret County being split, it was done in order for NC-03 and NC-07 to have the required population. Had Carteret not been split, some other county would have had to have been; and placing at least part of Carteret in the NC-07 makes it harder for McIntyre to hold the seat.
Drawing a bunch of square districts, or looking at “communities of interest” first and foremost, would have probably resulted in at best an 8-5 GOP map. This map is nowhere near as abhorrent as the RAT gerrymander of 2001 (not to mention of 1991), and it should serve to get rid of the remaining “moderate” or “conservative” Democrats that have kept the NC delegation Democrat for decades. Maybe after 2020 NC can draw square districts and have, say, a 10-4 GOP delegation (NC will pick up a Representative next time), but I don’t want ten more years of Blue Dogs calling the shots in Congress.
They're very likely going to pass an Iowa-style redistricting commission bill for the next census.
As you know, there are a lot of different permutations: every time you write, "they HAD to..." it just means they CHOSE to draw the rest of the district in such a way as to result in the district as constituted. There are many ways to skin a cat and it's no accident that, for example, the county with the strongest anti-McHenry sentiment was split in two, with its county seat removed. (Who did McHenry beat in the primary to win his Congressional seat? The Sheriff of Catawba County. Where would a successful McHenry primary challenger most likely come from? Catawba County. What is the voting base of Catawba County? Hickory. Where is Hickory now? Exactly.)
These things do not happen by accident. Let's not kid around.
As for Carteret, other nearby counties were split already and could have been reapportioned, and it does seem to me that that was a split of choice.
It would be great to see Pantano elected to represent Fort Bragg and also the many retired miltary in the district.