The GOP has control of the North Carolina state legislature for the first time in 140 years, and they won it just in time to redraw state and congressional district lines (and the Democrat Governor can’t say boo about it). The new congressional district map approved in NC will almost certainly result in 10 GOP Representatives and only 3 Democrat Representatives. NC currently has a 7-6 Democrat delegation and had an 8-5 Democrat delegation from January 2007 to January 2011, so this is a huge swing towards the GOP.
Here are the black and non-Hispanic white percentages, and President Bush 2004 vote percentages, for the redrawn CDs in NC, which I got from http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1&Body=Congress:
NC-01 (Butterfield’s black-majority CD):
51.80% black, 36.06% non-Hispanic white
38.89% Bush 2004
(SAFELY DEMOCRAT)
NC-02 (the CD Ellmers won from Etheridge last year):
16.95% black, 67.54% non-Hispanic white
63.96% Bush 2004
(SAFELY REPUBLICAN)
NC-03 (Walter Jones’s white-majority East Carolina CD):
23.92% black, 65.89% non-Hispanic white
60.97% Bush 2004
(COMFORTABLY REPUBLICAN)
NC-04 (Price’s Raleigh-Durham CD):
29.67% black, 51.49% non-Hispanic white
38.62% Bush 2004
(SAFELY DEMOCRAT)
NC-05 (Foxx’s western NC CD):
12.49% black, 76.49% non-Hispanic white
65.14% Bush 2004
(SAFELY REPUBLICAN)
NC-06 (Coble’s central NC CD):
15.19% black, 71.25% non-Hispanic white
62.52% Bush 2004
(SAFELY REPUBLICAN)
NC-07 (McIntyre’s SE NC CD):
17.27% black, 71.68% non-Hispanic white
59.46% Bush 2004
(LIKELY GOP TAKEOVER, UNLESS McINTYRE RUNS FOR REELECTION AS A DEMOCRAT, IN WHICH CASE THE GOP WOULD BE ONLY SLIGHTLY FAVORED)
NC-08 (Kissell’s Cabarrus County CD):
20.15% black, 60.60% non-Hispanic white
61.73% Bush 2004
(ALMOST CERTAIN GOP TAKEOVER, EVEN IF KISSELL RUNS)
NC-09 (Myrick’s Charlotte-area CD):
11.67% black, 75.33% non-Hispanic white
64.66% Bush 2004
(SAFELY REPUBLICAN)
NC-10 (McHenry’s western NC CD):
11.70% black, 79.53% non-Hispanic white
63.58% Bush 2004
(SAFELY REPUBLICAN)
NC-11 (Shuler’s far-western NC CD):
3.10% black, 87.59% non-Hispanic white
63.60% Bush 2004
(ALMOST CERTAIN GOP TAKEOVER, EVEN IF SHULER RUNS)
NC-12 (Watt’s black-plurality (now black-majority) CD):
50.54% black, 29.28% non-Hispanic white
30.66% Bush 2004
(SAFELY DEMOCRAT)
NC-13 (Miller’s northern NC CD):
14.85% black, 75.80% non-Hispanic white
69.82% Bush 2004
(CERTAIN GOP TAKEOVER, EVEN IF MILLER RUNS)
I wouldn’t be surprised if McIntyre switched to the GOP (he’s either the most conservative Democrat in Congress or the second-most conservative after Boren) instead of running for reelection as a Democrat, or if Shuler, Kissell and Miller retired.
Huge win for us.
A party switch by Mike McIntyre is iffy. He’s no doubt aware of what happened to Parker Griffith of Alabama. McIntyre is one of the most conservative DemocRATS in Congress, far more so than any others in his state’s delagation. It might be enough to get him reelected as a DemocRAT. He’s beaten party lines before.
This is definitely payback for Illinois. I hope that the North Carolina DemocRATS badger their Illinois peers about this.
Great breakdown. Thanks. With those Bush numbers, it astounds me that Obama won NC in ‘08, even if it was by only 16,000 odd votes. I don’t think Obama will win NC in ‘12.
9, 10, 11 are pretty reasonable, on the whole. But they butchered the Piedmont, Triangle, and Sandhills.
Here’s a picture of the new map:
Miller’s seat is now the most Republican in the state? That’s poetic since it was the worst rat gerrymander last time.