I assume you are talking only presidential elections, and I'd agree that Florida, judging by recent election history, is the most likely state where the Jewish vote could matter. But there are several others, where in a very tight contest, it could matter. New Jersey could be one of those, as well as Pennsylvania and Ohio. I can tell you from talking to people connected to the Republican Jewish Coalition that they also target Arizona and Nevada, where newer Jewish communities could also make a difference.
Pennsylvania has maybe 150,000 Jewish voters; Ohio has half that many. Out of 5-6 million voters in each state, that’s grasping at straws!