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Inflation Wild in BRIC Countries
Townhall.com ^ | July 13, 2011 | Mike Shedlock

Posted on 07/13/2011 12:02:45 PM PDT by Kaslin

Those looking for price inflation can easily find it if they open their eyes and look at the much beloved BRICs, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, as opposed to where everyone is looking, which is to say the United States.

MarketWatch reports China’s June inflation rises 6.4%

Monthly data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed the consumer price index for June climbed 6.4 % from the same period the year before. Many economists had expected the rise to be between 6.2% and 6.4%.

That increase compared with a 5.5% jump in May, which was itself the fastest rise in CPI since a 6.3% increase in July 2008.
Chinese Central Bank Downplays Soaring Costs

Like all central banks react when they don't want to react, PBOC chief suggests not to overreact to inflation
China's central bank chief Friday suggested markets shouldn't over react to a large rise in year-on-year inflation for June, saying that month-on-month figures are a better gauge of prices.

"It's better to use month-on-month inflation (data)...seasonally adjusted and annualized," said People's Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan.

"In China, we use the year-on-year inflation figure without seasonal adjustment: that's the problem," Zhou told a financial conference. "You always try to think about the base effect."
Nonsense From Zhou

As long as you are comparing the same month to the same month a year ago, there is no price comparison distortion. The "base effect" is zero. Month by month comparisons without seasonal adjustments are flawed.

Middle Class Inflation Woes Hit Russia

The Financial Times reports Inflation severs Russia’s material comforts

While the collapse of communism in the 1990s destroyed most Russians’ standard of living, something resembling a middle class began to appear again between 2000 and 2008, as real incomes doubled and oil revenues kept wages and pensions well ahead of inflation.

However, since the onset of the economic crisis in 2008, real incomes have been stagnating as wages have been frozen – while inflation gallops on.

Since the onset of the economic crisis in 2008, which saw gross domestic product fall 8 per cent in 2009, wages in most sectors have been frozen, while inflation, temporarily damped by the crisis, has now picked up. In the first quarter of 2011, real wages fell 2.9 per cent, driven by higher inflation than expected.

While official inflation for the year sits at a little more than 9 per cent, many think this statistic is fudged. “I think the real inflation rate is being understated by official statistics,” says Sam Greene, a professor of political science at the Moscow-based New Economic School.

Over the past five years, official statistics show prices rising 62 per cent but most Russians feel much greater increases.

“The middle class is splitting in two,” says Mikhail Chernysh, head of the social mobility section of the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Sociology. “One part is in danger of falling out of the middle class, while the other part is gaining.

“Getting into the middle class is very difficult in Russia and once you are there, it is hard to stay.”
India Hikes Rates 10 Times in 16 Months to Combat Inflation

Asia Times reports India Maintains Inflation Fight
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the central bank, has raised interest rates for a record 10th time in 16 months, grimly continuing its efforts to choke inflation by checking money flow.

But belt-tightening, the RBI has decided, remains one of the critical ways to tackle inflation, which rose to 9.06 % in May, up from 8.66 % in April.

"High input prices, rising finance costs and global uncertainties are adding to negative sentiments ... and a high interest rate environment will most certainly put brakes on new investments," Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India president Dilip Modi told Agence France-Presse.

RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao is unimpressed by such pleas, declaring in a statement that the immediate priority was to kill inflation, not to feed growth.
Note: The above link may trigger unwanted popups.

Credit Crisis in Brazil

On July 5th I posted an email from a Brazilian reader regarding inflation in Brazil. Please see Credit Crisis in Brazil: Consumer Loan Rates Hit 47%, Defaults Soar, Debt Service Tops 50% of Disposable Income for details.

Otavio, my Brazilian reader thinks Brazil's currency, the Real is "extremely overvalued". I agree for the reasons he gave.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 07/13/2011 12:02:48 PM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Who says America can’t export?


2 posted on 07/13/2011 12:04:43 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Gore Lauds Romney on Climate Position; 0bamaCare was based on RomneyCare.)
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To: Kaslin

I wonder if those countries measure real inflation, or phony inflation that excludes energy and food, some of those things that no-one in the US ever needs to purchase.


3 posted on 07/13/2011 12:17:53 PM PDT by Noob1999
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To: Kaslin

Interesting...these are the Basket of Currencies that Soros wants to replace the dollar with...


4 posted on 07/13/2011 12:18:50 PM PDT by blasater1960 (Deut 30, Psalm 111...the Torah and the Law, is attainable past, present and forever.)
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To: Kaslin
Inflation Wild in BRIC Countries

Not surprising. Inflation's pretty wild here.

5 posted on 07/13/2011 1:04:55 PM PDT by TheMole
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To: Kaslin

a Brazilian friend of mine went home for a visit recently and said he could not believe how expensive everything had gotten


6 posted on 07/13/2011 1:10:50 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Kaslin
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the central bank, has raised interest rates for a record 10th time in 16 months, grimly continuing its efforts to choke inflation by checking money flow.

But belt-tightening, the RBI has decided, remains one of the critical ways to tackle inflation, which rose to 9.06 % in May, up from 8.66 % in April.

Perhaps there is something wrong with the central bank theory that economic growth causes inflation, and that curbing economic growth will cure it. This is the latest example that the theory doesn't work.

7 posted on 07/13/2011 1:16:46 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The US has become a government with a country, rather than a country with a government.)
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To: Uncle Miltie
“Who says America can’t export?”

Damn!!! You beat me to it. You're exactly right.

8 posted on 07/13/2011 2:26:25 PM PDT by Wuli
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To: blasater1960

> In the News/Activism forum, on a thread titled Inflation
> Wild in BRIC Countries, blasater1960 wrote:

Perfect set-up for selling these currencies short.

That’s what Soros did in France and Russia. France fined him $100M - pocket change for him. Russia still has a warrant for his arrest. He is an international criminal.


9 posted on 07/13/2011 5:06:52 PM PDT by Westbrook (Having children does not divide your love, it multiplies it.)
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To: Westbrook

Is that old devil still alive? He’s making Putin look feckless if he is.


10 posted on 07/13/2011 5:12:52 PM PDT by MHGinTN (Some, believing they can't be deceived, it's nigh impossible to convince them when they're deceived.)
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To: MHGinTN

I think Soros bought Putin off.

Putin has killed his enemies everywhere and anywhere in the world, with no qualms, and no fear that he will be implicated.

When accused of sending killers to dust his enemies, his response is more or less, “So what?”

The only explanation for Soros being alive is that he and Putin came to an “understanding” that probably involved a large transfer of money into Putin’s Swiss account.


11 posted on 07/13/2011 7:21:14 PM PDT by Westbrook (Having children does not divide your love, it multiplies it.)
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To: Westbrook

Not even. Would any sane person trust rasPutin? Put money in an account for him and he would still off you if he wanted to. No, there is another reason, one that has Soros paying to accomplish something Putin wants but cannot do himself ... end the We The People Republic by bankrupting it at the hands of barry bassturd—who is too stupid to see he will be of no further use to Soros when it is done—and the commie criminal enterprise democrap party.


12 posted on 07/13/2011 7:24:30 PM PDT by MHGinTN (Some, believing they can't be deceived, it's nigh impossible to convince them when they're deceived.)
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To: MHGinTN

> Would any sane person trust rasPutin? Put money in an
> account for him and he would still off you if he wanted
> to. No, there is another reason, one that has Soros
> paying to accomplish something Putin wants but cannot do
> himself ... end the We The People Republic by bankrupting
> it at the hands of barry bassturd—who is too stupid to
> see he will be of no further use to Soros when it is done—
> and the commie criminal enterprise democrap party.

This is a very astute observation and deserves a bump.

Well stated.

My compliments.


13 posted on 07/13/2011 8:37:52 PM PDT by Westbrook (Having children does not divide your love, it multiplies it.)
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To: Westbrook
Thank you, I'll be here all week. Try the veal, ;^)
14 posted on 07/13/2011 8:57:26 PM PDT by MHGinTN (Some, believing they can't be deceived, it's nigh impossible to convince them when they're deceived.)
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To: Noob1999

The inflation measures in Russia, india and brazil (China I’m not sure about) has various foodstuffs and cost of energy included in their basket for calculating inflation.


15 posted on 07/14/2011 1:52:05 AM PDT by Cronos ( W Szczebrzeszynie chrzaszcz brzmi w trzcinie I Szczebrzeszyn z tego slynie.)
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To: Westbrook

A most insightful post. Thanks for the thoughts.


16 posted on 07/14/2011 4:40:31 AM PDT by GladesGuru (In a society predicated upon freedom, it is essential to examine principles, Kill the EPA!!!)
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To: GladesGuru; MHGinTN

Thanks, Glades, but the comments, and credit for them, belong to MHGinTN. I was just quoting him to bump his astute observations.


17 posted on 07/14/2011 6:56:17 AM PDT by Westbrook (Having children does not divide your love, it multiplies it.)
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