I can understand your skepticism, but since 1) the Indian AF needs a lot of new planes to replace much of their aging fighter fleet (they have a large number of MiG-21's and SEPECAT Jaguars that are rapidly aging), 2) the Indian Navy is going to have 3-4 carriers operational by 2020 and 3) the unknown status of India's own AMCA project and the likely high cost of the joint Russian-Indian FGFA fighter based on the Sukhoi PAK-FA, this means there is a pressing need for a currently available modern fighter, especially to counter the increasingly modern fighters of the Chinese.
As such, the Rafale is available almost "off the shelf" now, and my suggestion of a 500+ plane production run is not such a far-fetched idea.