The reality is that even if the SS Trust Fund contained real assets, the program will still go bust in 2036, i.e., the SSTF will use up all of its "assets."
I attended a week long seminar on SS some time ago. We had all kinds of folks from GAO, CBO, OMB, Congressmen, think tanks, SS Trustees, and even a Nobel Prize winner in economics discuss their various proposals to fix or change the system. One interesting suggestion I heard from a long term SS Trustee (public member) was to make SS a line item in the federal budget and get rid of the SSTF. This would force Congress to address the real costs of the program, which they have for so long used as a cash cow. I agree with him. Let's get rid of these phony trust funds.
>>If they are growing, we are probably taxing the people too much (surpluses) and if they are declining, then we are not taxing them enough to support the program. <<
I agree with the second half of your statement, but not the necessarily the first. In the early years after establishment of any retirement system, income must exceed outgo, or the fund will never be solvent. You have to build funds so that there is something to cash out when people finally reach retirement age.
Starting it the way they started the SS system, by letting people utilize it almost immediately, meant that income had to exceed outgo by a substantial amount, because those who retired after making just a few payments would be getting someone else’s money, rather than their own, in retirement.
I do think the retirement trust funds serve a purpose, because they serve as a measure of the general health of the system, and their direction provides clues as to whether adjustments have to be made sooner rather than later.
If they were to become line items in the budget, there would be far less of a constraint on politicians who would be inclined to raise payouts to buy more votes. You would completely sever the link between taxes paid in and benefits paid out.