You Texans (maybe within the Perry administration?) have your view and I have mine.
I give your guy at least a 30% chance to win the nomination.
I'd say that's probably about right.
When asking about "electable", there's really TWO equations.
1) Who can win the nomination and 2) Who can beat Obama after they win the nomination.
On the first question, I'd rank them Palin, Perry, Romney. On the second question, I'd rank them Romney, Perry, Palin.
On the first part, I wouldn't currently put odds on anyone at 50% or even 40%. Clearly, Palin entering the race will change the equation a great deal. If Palin stays out but Perry goes in, that's one equation. If Perry stays out but Palin goes in, that's another. If neither go in, then it will probably come down to Romney vs. Bachmann.