Posted on 07/30/2011 8:38:07 AM PDT by silentknight
I have great consternation in how this will play out. This is mainly due to the lack of leadership displayed. All involved are posturing politically. Who among them truly cares about this country? This is the million dollar question. Those who do care are gold and need to be supported. I say it’s those who identify with the Tea Party.
How many can we vote out in the next election? Leading up to the last election is appeared the Tea Party had some chance to win some seats.
Wonder what can be pulled off this next time around. Can America be convinced that we have to get the old politicians out of office.
McCain made it back in - Pelosi keeps making it back in.
Just how many can be thrown out this next time around. I fear most Americans are too stupid to know who to blame.
“Working from Q309, forward, read GDP as follows:
“1.7, 3.8, 3.9, 3.8, 2.5, 2.3 … now here it comes: 0.4 … and then today’s 1.3%.
“I won’t keep you in suspense any more. Here’s my take: MOMENTUM IS BROKEN. A big, ol’ monkey wrench, courtesy of input arising from the change in inventory and Imports. And once momentum stumbles, then H2 growth becomes a wild card, right?”
Is There a Recession in Our Future?
I mentioned a chart from Rich Yamarone, Chief Economist at Bloomberg (who I’m having dinner with next Tuesday in NYC). I previously wrote:
“And the last chart is one I had not seen before, and is interesting. Rich notes that if year-over-year GDP growth dips below 2%, a recession always follows. It is now at 2.3%.”
Growth is clearly decelerating. Look at the growth numbers from the St. Louis Fed website for the last six quarters:
2009-10-01 13019.012
2010-01-01 13138.832
2010-04-01 13194.862
2010-07-01 13278.515
2010-10-01 13380.651
2011-01-01 13444.301
It will be very interesting to see, at the end of the month, what the numbers are for the second quarter. Another quarter like the first quarter and we should either be close to or actually dip below 2%.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-economy-has-hit-stall-speed-2011-7#ixzz1TeQctgVe
And the $4 trillion they are talking about? That is a down payment. We need $10-12 trillion in cuts over ten years, which I explained would put us into a slow-growth-at-best, Muddle Through economy with high unemployment and tough tax policies. I pointedly showed Senator Mike Lee why we could not cut spending too fast (as the Tea Party wants) – unless we want Depression 2.0 and 20% unemployment. It has to be my “glide-path” option. As I said, Lee was taking notes fast and furious. And asking the right questions. I like him. Lieberman was also engaged (I really do like him), and they were all very candid about the political problems they were facing. And it was a very sober group as we ended the meeting. But they all politely thanked me for coming and talking frankly. Even the Dems (I confess I think I know the name of one, but the website picture does not look like him, so I don’t want to get it wrong. But he was impressive with his questions as well.)
I have to tell you, gentle reader, that leaving that meeting I was very sober as well. They made it clear that getting it done is going to be very hard, and it will take real commitment from men and women like them to get us through this. They all noted that their mail was running 100 to 1 against cutting Medicare. Every one of them. They know that they cannot close the deficit gap just with the elimination of the Bush tax cuts. And I think I convinced any who weren’t already, that not getting the deficit under control means Depression 2.0 and a disaster.
The debate in 2012-13 will be, how much Medicare do we want and how do we want to pay for it? Sadly, I think the only way is with a VAT (value-added tax), since less than 50% of citizens pay any income taxes now. Want to run on a program of taxing the “middle class?” Didn’t think so. Want to run on a platform of cutting Medicare? That is not a winner either. We are at an impasse.
We need a massive restructuring of our entire tax code to be more encouraging of creating jobs. But that is another story for another week. It is time to hit the send button.
Thank you
Wonder how long we will have to wait until major riots break out in our big cities. Will it be before the next election or if Obama loses? Will it be when they find out there just isn’t enough money to continue to pay and pay and pay entitlements that never should have been there in the first place?
I wonder what the trigger for the big riots (that are coming) will end up being.
Rampant voter fraud is a problem. Why else would there be such a backlash against voter ID?
Roll call vote is up on the Reid bill House vote.
DEMS voting against Reid:
Wu voted to reject ??? - but I guess its not like he has to worry about re-election ...
re: “There is nothing special about them at all.”
I disagree - they are our only true ally in the middle-east.
re: “Cut all foreign aid till we get OUR house in order.”
Completely agree, but we need to continue to cooperate militarily with Israel - that includes military spending with them.
re: “Tired of squandering billions all over the globe and we get jack in return. Its time WE paid down OUR debts. THEN we can go and talk about foreign aid.”
I agree when it comes to the rest of the world, but Israel is not like other so-called allies. I’m not saying that money we give them couldn’t be cut back, but keep the military spending. We need them to continue to exist in the middle-east. Just my opinion, but I believe if we ever abandon Israel, we’re done for too.
re: “No one said anything about abandoning them, just stop sending them money (along with everyone else) when WE ARE BROKE.”
It’s possible that the money we send Israel could be cut back, but keep the military spending and cooperation. It’s like paying for insurance, you just have to do it. They are our only true ally in the middle-east. We need them to continue to exist.
Well, since the only jobs left are government jobs, I see his point.
Military cooperation is one thing. Borrowing money to give it to someone else then having to pay it back with interest is stupid and wrong and I don’t care who is receiving it.
I have one hero, my Lord and Savior.
Delusional is a clinical condition which I highly doubt you’re medically qualified to diagnose.
You have newly met someone with whom you might agree on many issues. When a difference of opinion arises, your opening gambit is sneering condescension. Perhaps such powerful skills of persuasion impress someone, but not me. You're welcome to try it elsewhere.
The one thing the American people MUST do is finish the job in 2012. We hired the Janitorial Service in 2010, now we need to bring in the cleaning crew. That means Senate and PRESIDENCY.
I heard someone opine today that it was scarey that there were lawmakers in Washington that was there to clean the place up.
AND GASP...they didn’t care if they got reelected. We need to keep them and add to their numbers. It was funny to hear the statement “they don’t want pork”, so they don’t have a price for their vote.
Just amazing..Reps with ethical standards!
The problem is clearly two fold. First is in the Senate. The "Gang of Six" undermined "Cut, Cap & Balance" and there was no major push, no rally in support of it from without. It was easily ignored by Reid and the press.
Awareness of "Cut, Cap & Balance" was pretty poor. I ran "Help Jim DeMint: http:// www.cutcapbalancepledge.com/" as my tagline starting around June 18th. I believe the first I heard about it was in an interview he gave to Mark Levin June 17th. A vote on the bill happened just a month later. I wouldn't say there was much of a push for support which leads me into the second problem.
The second problem is message. Republicans have been stepping all over one another. It's their natural way. It's not a monolithic top-down, good-stepper party like Democrats where the members get carefully polled language to use in order to further the agenda and control the debate.
Just a few months ago the schmuck Schumer admitted this happens when he revealed his caucus leadership told him and the rest to describe the Ryan budget cuts as "extreme."
Republicans just need to get to pointed in one direction.
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