Number of the Week: China’s Coming Population Bust (The One Child Only Policy Works Too Well)

Wall Street Journal ^ | 08/01/2011 | Justin Lahart

[SeekAndFind]

44.6 million: Projected decline in China’s population of 15- to 24-year-olds this decade.

China’s era as the world’s go-to provider of inexpensive labor may be drawing to a close. Workers are demanding higher wages and low-end manufacturers in coastal areas have in recent years complained of labor shortages.

Rising affluence and increased opportunities in China’s interior certainly have something to do with that, but so does a profound demographic shift. Largely because of the one-child policy introduced in the late 1970s, the number of children per woman fell to 1.77 in 2000 from 3.78 in 1975, according to the World Bank.

Making the problem more acute, many rural parents are less willing to see their children leave home to work in the cities because they want to ensure somebody will be there to take care of them in their old age.

[SeekAndFind]

Also note -- THERE ARE 30 MILIION MORE BOYS THAN GIRLS IN CHINA. All of these because many families abort the child when they find out it is a girl.

Imagine 30 million horny young men who cannot find brides...

[apillar]

I recently read another article where the one child policy is resulting in a coming generation of narcissistic children, who have been constantly dotted over and waited on hand and foot by their parents, and are use to getting anything they want without working for it. The good news is this will probably result in the fall of communism in the next 20 years or so, because this generation is simply not going to allow a government or anybody else to tell them what they can or can't do. The bad news is that the economy will probably be destroyed in the process as they will demand European style unions, short work days, generous vacations, and lavish retirement plans.

[Perdogg]

They will go to Taiwan or Vietnam.

[silverleaf]

demography is destiny

[lurk]

Boy, centralized government sure does have a whole bunch of...unexpected...results.

[jdsteel]

Perfect...for the Chinese army. Not so great for any countries around them.

[The Working Man]

Boy, centralized government sure does have a whole bunch of...unexpected...results.

---

Thanks! I needed that — Unexpected — Laugh.

[PapaBear3625]

I recently read another article where the one child policy is resulting in a coming generation of narcissistic children, who have been constantly dotted over and waited on hand and foot by their parents, and are use to getting anything they want without working for it.

Now visualize these kids in the Chinese military.

Then think about the reaction of parents if China gets into a war over Taiwan or whatever, which threatens to produce large numbers of casualties, with each casualty being a family's only child.

[PGR88]

This is one of the biggest long-term economic trends we have. Some people notice it, but not many.

I work with, and compete against, Chinese firms in our industry. I have for 2 decades.

They are already seeing the effects - smaller labor pool, rapidly rising wages and inflation, rapidly changing views on work, politics, and social attitudes. Like everything in China, the "Central Planners" have put societal changes on steroids and speeded them up - and as usual, they have no idea of the consequences.

[PGR88]

Then think about the reaction of parents if China gets into a war over Taiwan or whatever, which threatens to produce large numbers of casualties, with each casualty being a family's only child.

Your view is correct. These "princelings" usually have 2 parents and 4 grand-parents serving their every need. In the exact opposite of the extreme political abuse and poverty experienced by the older generation, these kids 33 and under have been coddled. Most know only pure materialism.

Chinese haven't yet turned into the hovering soccer-moms of Northern New Jersey, but they are on the way.

[TheOldLady]

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