If you want to see something interest, look into the percentage of GDP collected in taxes verses tax rates over that same time period. No matter what the tax rate, government at all levels can’t get more than about 20% of GDP for a sustained period of time.
Therefore if you don’t want deficit spending, spending must be less than 20% of GDP or it simply won’t work. We’re currently spending something north of 25% of GDP at just the federal level..
Another factor is is states and cities are demanding a piece of that 20% of GDP maximum. A larger piece than they ever demanded before. That leaves even less for the Feds to collect without crashing the system.
It isn’t much more complicated than that.