THANK YOU for posting! Polling in the 30s is certainly a well known danger zone in politics. This is great news.
Actually anytime an incumbent polls below 50% it spells trouble, because they are a known quantity.
The only election that 39 percent by the incumbant would have been sufficient to win the presidency is the 1912 election.
338 Wilson
135 Roosevelt
58 Taft
Wilson loses 10 states, but it’s not enough.
1912 was a crazy election year. Every other vote split (including Clinton in 1992), requires greater than 39 percent.
Still, I’d prefer to see him <=35% by Election Day.