Maybe, but he is one who is entrenched in the "conventional wisdom" of the DC crowd. My best 'guess' is that someone spilled the beans recently as the Palin's have admitted recently to reaching out for "advice".
Can't argue with that reasoning, but he probably put those pieces of data into a larger data set, and came to that conclusion.
I just have to believe that he's watching everything that's going on, and is seeing the underlying strategies and tactics being employed by all of the candidates. I think you just would, after such a long time in the business.
I still think it's interesting that he went on record with that prediction. Could be a warning signal to the establishment crew, ya think?