Those seeking to rebuild the post-Obama republic are counting on votes that may not be there.
About half of eligible voters actually vote. Last time out, 53% of that half voted for Obama. That really means in effect, that all Obama needs to do to win is receive the votes of more than 25% of eligible voters.
To beat Obama, the Republicans need to :
(a)Register many more new voters
(b)Get massive turnout (i.e., over 70%)
(c)Realize that being correct or logical has shockingly little to do with winning elections. George Will is a smart guy with a very small fan club (and I'm not among them.)
Are you employed? Is gasoline affordable? Does your family have shelter? Can you pay the cable bill? Those are understandable issues. If more than 50% of those who bother to register and then actually vote are receiving some form of government assistance, no matter how little, Obama could actually win again.
The overriding issue is:
Is government's role to provide "Social and Economic Justice," that is, economic equality and security for every citizen?
Or, is a constitutional representative government's role to foster freedom of opportunity and to remain out of citizens' lives as much as possible?
Seems to be that the actual voters are close to about 50-50 on this issue. If Team Obama gets 22% of the actual voters and well-oiled Democrat fraud machinery throwes in another 4-5%, they could win again, big-time.
I don't disagree, but with his polls falling like they are, he will have to whip his base into an ugly, fearful frenzy to get them to the polls. And I don't doubt that he'll do it.
God, I dread the next 15 months.
You mean by more than the 7% he won last time? If the election remains a referendum on Obama (job approval rating now at 39%), there is no way he wins big time. The economy and unemployment will have to experience a miraculous recovery in a year's time. Obama is losing independents big-time. He is losing the young vote, including recent college graduates (most of whom have returned home to live with their parents) big-time.
And if this country heads into a double dip recession as the global economy starts to tank given the problems in Europe, then Obama may decide to pull an LBJ and not run for a second term. Historically, the US has led the world out of recessions with our unbridled consumerism. We no longer can provide such a boost to the global economy and must depend upon Europe and the emerging economies to lift us out of our recession. Lots of luck.
The One is in trouble big-time. He is no longer the Hope and Change candidate. He has a record. The questions will be, "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" and "Is the country better off than it was four years ago."
I see Obama with a solid 40-42% of the vote.
Enough for a monumental loss in a 2-way race or a Clintonian plurality in a 3-way.
I think the Baraqqis view it the same way, and understand the need for a 3rd party candidate. Getting Romney the R nomination via crossover votes in open primary states is a way to bring on a Tea Party challenger at almost no financial cost to Dems.
If the R nominee is somebody else, then Soros will have to pony up the $$ for an “independent” candidate run.