If people look at the records, rather than the rhetoric, it will be Perry and Romney splitting the moderate vote, assuming a conservative enters the race, or one of the others in the race catch on.
I would say that Perry will pull from both moderates and conservatives. He has a strong list of conservative positives, far more than Mitt. See post 31 at the link.
Perry is very strong against abortion and gay marriage, and he rejects the idiocy of global warming. He also has very strong fiscal creds which will be extrememly important in the general wooing indies that don’t care about social issues.
Yes, he also has his negatives. Perry’s record has been hashed over repeatedly on this conservative site in the past few days. Many Palin supporters, including me, have stated, that they will support Perry if Sarah does not get in, I have not heard one of them say they will support Mitt if Sarah does not get in. Some will go to Bachmann.