Dude, it’s Allan Lichtman, I wouldn’t expect anything else out of him but a prediction of victory for Obama, they’re on the same team.
RE: Dude, it’s Allan Lichtman, I wouldn’t expect anything else out of him but a prediction of victory for Obama, they’re on the same team
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WHO IS ALAN LICHTMAN?
Allan Jay Lichtman (born April 4, 1947) is an American political historian who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C. He ran in the 2006 Maryland senate race for the seat vacated by Paul Sarbanes.
Lichtman began teaching at American University in 1973, rising to chair of the History Department, and was named Scholar/Professor of the Year in 1993.
Outside of the classroom, Lichtman has testified as an expert witness on civil rights in more than 70 cases for the U.S. Department of Justice and for civil rights groups such as the NAACP, the Mexican-American Legal Defense and Education Fund and Puerto Rican Legal Defense and Education Fund, and the Southern Poverty Law Center.
He also consulted for Vice President Al Gore and Senator Edward Kennedy. He assisted the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights investigation into voting irregularities in Florida during the 2000 election, submitting an extensive report of his statistical analysis of balloting problems. Lichtman concluded “there were major racial disparities in ballot rejection rates.
Kinda reminds me of Pelosi, telling everyone she'll not lose the house majority...no way that could ever happen.
>>> Every streak comes to and end, especially the remarkable ones.
It boils down to “The incumbent always has an edge”. That’s why you need a credible candidate as your challenger.
>>> Dude, it’s Allan Lichtman, I wouldn’t expect anything else out of him but a prediction of victory for Obama, they’re on the same team.
Yeah everybody is an enemy and everything is a conspiracy. But I recall nobody objected in 2004 when this guy’s system said GWB would win.
1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Bush 1; Kerry 0.
2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Bush 2; Kerry 0.
3. The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Bush 3; Kerry 0.
4. There is no significant (more than 5 per cent) third-party candidate. Bush 4; Kerry 0.
5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Bush 5; Kerry 0.
6. Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Bush 5; Kerry 1.
7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy (on a New Deal or Reagan Revolution scale). Bush 5; Kerry 2.
8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Bush 6; Kerry 2.
9. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal (i.e., touches the President personally). Bush 7; Kerry 2.
10. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs (9/11 counts, as did Pearl Harbor). Bush 7; Kerry 3.
11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs (Afghanistan counts even if Iraq does not). Bush 8; Kerry 3.
12. The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero (on a JFK, Eisenhower, Reagan scale). Bush 8; Kerry 4.
13. The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Bush 9; Kerry 4.
“So even though the latest polls put Kerry up to 5 per cent ahead of Bush, Lichtman thinks the President is a shoo-in with his nine keys.”