Birth Death Adds 87K To Today's NFP Miss, 491K Jobs In Past Year Due To "Statistics"

Take Green (i.e. double zero), and subtract from it the Birth Death adjustment and presto: you have reality, or what we predicted earlier today- a negative NFP print. Also, for the seasonal sticklers Birth Death has added 491k jobs in the past year: no seasonality here.

or the original writer did a very bad job.

It’s good information.... But the text, the actual words you choose to publish with this report are not at all clear and concise. Your message is getting hidden because you did not either write the whole report, or failed to copy-and-paste the whole report.

or the original writer did a very bad job.

I copied the full text. The writer has assumed some background knowledge from the reader.

To clarify, the BLS collects two kinds of employment/unemployment data: household and establishment.

The household data collected from individuals is used to get the published seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate.

The establishment data collected from businesses is used to get the seasonally adjusted NFP or Non Farm Payroll number.

Seasonal adjustment is a statistic tool designed to 'smooth out' historical seasonal fluctuations in employment.

The Birth and Death model is a statistical tool that is used by the BLS to guesstimate the number of jobs that were added/lost secondary to businesses being created/dying.

The birth and death number is not seasonally adjusted. It is added to the raw non-seasonally adjusted 'establishment' data, which in turn undergoes seasonal adjustment. The final seasonally adjusted NFP is the published NFP.

Here on table B-1 are both the non seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted numbers.

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