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To: muir_redwoods
"In a field of 8 or 9, 26% is a commanding lead."

No, it is not. A lead is a lead. 26% ALWAYS means 74% voted against you.

Didn't you see the polls this morning all over Fox News? They said "74% of GOP DO NOT WANT PALIN TO RUN"

... or, in other words, she is tied with Perry.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

51 posted on 09/02/2011 9:51:19 AM PDT by Mr. K
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To: Mr. K

You never studies statistics did you? In a field of three, 34%, if thats the highest score,is a lead. In a field of four, 26%, if that’s the highest score, is a lead. In a field of five, 21% is a lead if that’s the highest score reported. Get it yet? Only in a field of two is a majority required for a lead. In larger fields a plurality will for polling purposes.


89 posted on 09/02/2011 11:00:45 AM PDT by muir_redwoods (Somewhere in Kenya, a village is missing an idiot)
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To: Mr. K

Taking a chance that someone wants to have a real discussion in the thread —

The two questions are fundamentally different. The one question is about who you like the BEST of all the candidates. The other is a question about who you would not want to BE a candidate.

For example, the 26% who preferred Perry first might also be happy with Bachmann if Perry falls out. And they might also like Cain, or some other candidate. Likewise, the people supporting other candidates might also be OK with Perry should their preferred candidate be gone.

So saying 74% did not choose Perry as their first choice is not at all the same as saying that 74% do not want Sarah Palin in the race.

And of course, that second question isn’t even about supporting a candidate. I bet some of the 74% who don’t want Palin in would support her if she looked like she could win — the reason for not wanting her in the race might not have ANYTHING to do with if they like her or not. That’s why that question is silly.

I’ve always thought the best polling would be to ask both “who is your first choice”, and “who would you never vote for”. That would be more revealing than “do you want someone to run or not”.


101 posted on 09/02/2011 3:37:32 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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