Well TARP I’m not sure about. Some say “Well they paid it all back” but when I look into the details, there’s no telling what “all” means. Sometimes it means they are ready to pay it back. Google AIG and TARP or Chrysler and TARP or GM and TARP to be thoroughly confused.
My understanding is that of the $245 billion loaned out, $175 billion has already been paid back - predominantly that given to the banks. What’s outstanding is really the stock of AIG and GM. If sold at market rate today, we’d lock in about $45 billion in total losses.
So, at worst, it’s around a $45 billion hit - not the $300 billion as shown in the graph.