Skip to comments.Jobs plan may create 1 million jobs - economists
Posted on 09/09/2011 7:56:07 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
President Obama laying out his proposed jobs plan to Congress Thursday night.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Economists gave generally positive reviews to President Obama's jobs plan Friday, with some estimating that at least 1 million jobs could be added in the next year if Congress passes the package.
The payroll tax holiday for workers and small businesses was cited specifically for having a relatively good "bang for the buck." And that part of the plan may have the most bipartisan support.
"This additional spending capacity in the hands of consumers should continue to foster improvements in aggregate domestic demand. And ultimately, it is demand and demand alone that will lead to more business hiring," said Russell Price, senior economist for Ameriprise Financial Services.
Price estimates the increased payroll tax holiday for workers by itself is likely to add between 750,000 to 1 million jobs, and that the new break on payroll taxes for employers could add an additional 100,000 to 200,000 jobs.
He added that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, could get a 1.5 percentage point boost as well.
Macroeconomic Advisors, a St. Louis research firm, estimates that payrolls would grow by 1.3 million by the end of 2012 and another 800,000 by the end of 2013, if the package passed as proposed. It is looking for a 1.3% rise in GDP.
Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors, said even if the impact to the economy is short lived, the jobs plan should be passed.
"Given the elevated risk of recession the U.S. faces today, additional near-term stimulus reduces that risk," said Prakken. "Given the deleterious effects of long-term unemployment on an individual's skills and long-term employment prospects, speeding a return to employment is both individually and socially beneficial."
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
The $787 billion stimulus bill passed by Congress will not quickly solve the historic problems besetting the economy, but it could reduce the damage, while providing relief for the unemployed and the uninsured.
Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, predicts the biggest effects will occur in 2010 from the bill's spending for aid to state and local governments and on infrastructure such as roads, bridges, transit and other areas.
Moody's Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi says the bill could help end the economic slide. He warns, however, that the stimulus spending will likely be too small, given the size of the economic decline, and suggests Congress may have to revisit the issue.
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office says the bill could increase employment in a range of 800,000 to 2.3 million jobs by the fourth quarter of 2009 and 1.2 million to 3.6 million by the fourth quarter of 2010....
From USA Today. The Internet is our friend.
I don't recall who claimed it Thursday ahead of the speech but this proposal was described as a fourth attempt of a similar policy. The pundit said when W tried tax rebates twice, people paid down debt. When Obama tried a payroll tax holiday people paid down debt. Temporary relief hadn't spurred spending so we'll do more of it expecting different results.
I'd like to take a moment to point out Democrats, in particular the current sanctimonious occupier of the office, attacked Pres. Bush for telling people to SPEND MONEY after 9/11, calling it a wasted opportunity...blah, blah community service...blah, blah. Now these same asses are desperate for people to SPEND MONEY.
It sounds like they might be wanting to try on the employer side this time which is what should've happened this year if they were going to try it at all.
Might it work now? I'm dubious. He and his policies have so frightened the business sector and consumers, a few extra bucks on a temporary basis hardly sound likely to overcome those fears particularly with more talk aloud of a double-dip recession.
I have a half dozen employees that I would have just given them my share of money and let them start each their own small business. No payback to me at all.
Then I would hire some more employees as the first set now have enough capitol for starting a business each and hopefully their own workforce.
But what Obama wants is a nation of unionized labor, like what they have in the SOVIET Union.
Chief economist Mark Zandi is quoted in the latest article as well.
1) I don't trust the source (CNNMoney)
2) I don't trust the so-called "economists" who I doubt have ever created a single job or run a payroll in their entire pampered, pathetic, miserable socialist lives.
3) What happened with the 3 million estimated jobs and 8% or less unemployment that the $887 billion from Porkulus I that it was supposed to have given us?
4) To the elitist and dumber-than-dirt economists who support 0dumb0's non-plan, tell me a single city, state, country or even a single program anywhere, where socialism has ever worked? Just one...... that's right, there is none.
Kill the bill!!!
Name all those progressive libtard, Keynesian economists CNN! =.=
Sure... public sector jobs.. and temporary at best... in essence, what we’re talking ‘bout is walkin-round money... money for supporters of Obamy.
I call BS on those numbers of jobs “created,” as well.
Probably the same idiot-ridden “economists” who claimed the Stimulus would create 3 million plus jobs and drop the unemployment rate to 8% or below, huh!? =.=
I am told I should not equate dollars with jobs in a FReepmail. The argument goes to the multiplier effect on ‘infrastructure.’
These are the words from that FReepmail: “Whats not clever... your math. Youre trying to equate dollars and jobs. I guess you think those workers would not pay taxes? I guess you think those jobs would not add value to our infrastructure, our small businesses, and our education system via hiring more teachers? In other words... a dollar does not equate to a job. Does that make sense?”
The current buzzwords of employment routinely use ‘lean, belting, agile’ and ‘added value.’ People who work for corporations have to justify their existence by what they produce. There is no way that future value of borrowed moneys spent today will guarantee results. We are witness to the human resources version of options trading and derivatives.
It does not take $400,000 to ‘create’ 1 job. That was my point, which is actually 2 points: a) added work implies finding a need and filling it, based on demand. b) value of work is not measured by anything remotely resembling command economics. This is exhibited almost perfectly by increasing teachers’ salaries based on years + degree + longevity bonus, especially considering that teachers’ salaries are paid by the largesse of taxpayers or the will of parents. The artifice in public salaries is an absurdity, as is the concept of unionized public employees.
Is that net jobs or saved jobs or new jobs while other people get laid off?
ROFLOL! Yep will create just as many as the first STIMULUS did....zero!
Don’t forget H1B and offshored jobs @ 10% of the cost.
I called PayPal customer service last week. Guess where it was.....the Philippines.
$450,0000 / job.
Well at that rate, spend $10 trillion and get 0% unemployment, right?
Wrong, of course.
Obama increased the public debt by 50% in 3 years. More debt added faster than at any time in our history. Jobs added? Nope.
Now we have poor job growth AND a growing debt that threatens our future.
It is absolutely absurd that, right after we get a ratings downgrade, he responds with a plan to double-down on deficit spending. Actually more than absurd. Disgraceful.
“A payroll tax holiday didn’t do much this year except steal from Social Security. It was a gimmick. People didn’t spend it, they paid down debt. “
That should NOT be a problem. We need people to be fiscally responsible for once, I mean if the govt wont do it ...
This idea that the right thing to do is get on another sugar-high of consumption is wrong. We need serious repair of our fiscal house.
Govt should be finding ways to create jobs that do NOT cost money.
Here would be a GREAT stimulus idea. Repeal every single tax hike Obama ever imposed:
A 156 percent increase in the federal excise tax on tobacco
Obamacare Individual Mandate Excise Tax
Obamacare Employer Mandate Tax
Obamacare Surtax on Investment Income: Creation of a new, 3.8 percent surtax on investment income
Obamacare Excise Tax on Comprehensive Health Insurance Plans
Obamacare Hike in Medicare Payroll Tax
Obamacare Medicine Cabinet Tax
Obamacare HSA Withdrawal Tax Hike
Obamacare Flexible Spending Account Cap aka Special Needs Kids Tax
Obamacare Tax on Medical Device Manufacturers
Obamacare Haircut for Medical Itemized Deduction from 7.5% to 10% of AGI
Obamacare Tax on Indoor Tanning Services
Obamacare elimination of tax deduction for employer-provided retirement Rx drug coverage in coordination with Medicare Part D
Obamacare Blue Cross/Blue Shield Tax Hike
Obamacare Excise Tax on Charitable Hospitals
Obamacare Tax on Innovator Drug Companies
Obamacare Tax on Health Insurers
Obamacare $500,000 Annual Executive Compensation Limit for Health Insurance Executives
Obamacare Employer Reporting of Insurance on W-2
Obamacare Black liquor tax hike
Obamacare Codification of the economic substance doctrine
“This stimulus is yet another bailout for Obamas friends in unions and state Govt.”
Yes. This is all about getting the $$$s to pay for his re-election campaign. Spread the pork to ‘friends’ to juice up the support.
It’s bad enough when we have $1 billion campaigns ... but a $450 billion campaign is a disgrace.
Key word.....”MAY” produce jobs! Geez!
these are all the same guys that find everything “unexpected”