With Kabul Under Attack, What Weakening Insurgency?

The Atlantic ^ | Uri Friedman

[AfricanChristian]

As details continue to emerge regarding today's assault on the U.S. Embassy and NATO headquarters in Kabul, analysts are tackling a vexing question: Are Afghanistan's militants really as desperate, weak, and war-weary as Western officials frequently suggest? Earlier this month, Ryan Crocker, the new U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, told The Washington Post that "the Taliban foot soldiers are tired of it all, and ready to put their guns down if they can be assured that they can be fully reintegrated," adding that "the biggest problem in Kabul is traffic" (as you might imagine, that line is awash in ridicule on Twitter this morning). In July, Crocker declared that a spate of assassinations in Kandahar might indicate that the Taliban is suffering from "significant organizational weakness" and an inability to "conduct large scale operations." But Kabul especially has recently been the scene of ambitious insurgent strikes, including attacks on the Intercontinental Hotel and the British Council, as Afghan forces assume formal responsibility for security in the capital.

Freelance journalist Simon Klingert tweets that the "city-wide attack," which was carried out by militants armed with rockets and automatic weapons and included explosions in other parts of the capital, "requires sophisticated insurgent coordination and communication. Failing insurgency likely couldn't pull it off." Klingert also raises questions about the capability of Afghan security forces and calls the war in Afghanistan a "classic asymmetric conflict."

[linear]

Tet Offensive...

[11th Commandment]

My thoughts exactly.... The question is that the Tet was a military disaster for North Vietnam, but a PR victory. What I am not reading- was the US and NATO able to capture/kill all the militants in the open? If not, this was more than a PR victory.

[fireforeffect]

Nah.

Happens every fall as the AAF (Anti-Afghan Forces) prepare to go back to Pakistan for the winter.

This year it just got more press.

[Retain Mike]

You folks beat me to it, but here is my post anyway.

This so much reminds me of Tet. The primary thing you saw on the news was the attack on the U.S. embassy. Tet was of such significance as a holiday that a truce was declared. When the attacks came the South Vietnamese armed forces were on vacation and had to find their way back to their units. They did so and before it was over had crushed nearly every VC main force unit in the country. The VC not only lost something like 60,000 killed, but more importantly in an Asian society lost “face”. This country remained clueless and Johnson chickened out.

[NoLibZone]

With Obama we have a weakening leadership but not military.

Odinga must be stripped of command .

[Chuckster]

Tet offensive

That was my first thought too. Let us hope that it turns out the same way for the Taliban as it did for the VC (As a result of the US counter-offensives, they were never again an effective fighting force). Let us also hope that the American people and our elected leaders don't fall for the MSM propaganda this time.