IMO, the only state where a realistic swing in Jewish votes could make a difference is Florida, which has swung Republican anyway in close situations.
Your argument is certainly persuasive based on the percentages. It seems odd to me then, why, in election cycle after election cycle (general and statewide), there is always talk of the importance of the Jewish vote and candidates are consistently courting the Jewish vote. I’ll switch around to your side and argue that it may be the phrase “Jewish vote” is also a euphemism for “Jewish money”. Still, you always get those photo opps with the candidate visiting the Jewish nursing homes, etc.