Well, the orbital track I posted is from Friday afternoon. That’s the time frame when NASA says they SO FAR predict when it’s coming down.
When I back up the track, the orbit before the one I posted will take the UARS completely around the southern tip of South America, going nowhere near land, until it crosses eastern Africa at about 2:25pm Eastern. After it exits in north-central Africa near Libya, it’ll cross the Mediterranean, coming near Sicily and southern Italy and then into Eastern Europe. It will then pass into central Russia and over a lot of the ‘Stans’. It will cross Siberia and down the Korean Peninsula and over southern Japan at around 2:55pm Eastern.
After that, it’ll be over the South Pacific (as you thought) until it crosses into South America on the orbit I posted.
One thing to remember: until it gets closer to the actual re-entry time, NASA _SAYS_ they have no idea exactly WHEN it’ll fall. “Friday afternoon” is a fairly nebulous time-frame. Is it EARLY afternoon, LATE afternoon, or what? I just followed the time frame they said and showed the orbital track that will happen in the middle of the afternoon Eastern time in the US.
There is probably a 3 to 6 hour window where it could be earlier or later depending on what position it is in when it first starts to get significant drag...
Is the chart being continuously updated?
(BTW, thanks for the chart. I had searched for one but not found it)