[webstersII]

“Will they call the note?”

No, because they can’t.

They own bonds. The bonds are worth a certain amount at maturity. They can wait for them to mature or cash them in on the open market. That’s it.

[nathanbedford]

I am pretty sure the Chinese own not just long-term bonds but shorter-term notes and other paper. The point is that much of what they own comes up for renewal periodically and the simple fact is that if the Chinese and others do not roll over these loans at regular intervals, the United States simply cannot pay them off.

Add to this the fact that the Fed has announced, apparently reluctantly, that it has purchased 95% of this debt since June and one is confronted with the uneasy feeling that we are extremely vulnerable if not already in deep trouble.

I stand back and look at the world picture and ask where can all this growth at around 10% be expected to come from in the world's 2nd economy if it's markets, Europe and America, are on the verge of recession? China is primarily an export economy, its domestic economy is inadequate as yet to carry it or provide it with the growth it needs to prevent civil upheaval. China is the 3rd leg of a three-legged stool and the other 2 legs, Europe and America, are already in big trouble.

If we cannot send money to China for flatscreen TVs they cannot send money to us to buy our bonds and notes. The paper chase finally comes to an end.

That is what the price of copper is telling us and that is what the decline in the value of gold is telling us, that the world is heading for deep recession and probably deflation which the governments will try to cure with inflation. Ominously, Goldman Sachs has come out this week and frankly advocated such a course, citing FDR's new deal in support.

I do not see how any of this ends well.