I think you are right, but you have to spend more money converting it plyethylene. Naphtha goes straight into blending for gasoline. I wondered if any here had a feel for the conversion cost.
everybody did expect natural gas to rise because as more and more electricity was generated with nat gas, the US would have to begin importing, and nat gas prices would be higher.
Yes, we had many LNG import facilities being planned and built. The $30~40 billion Alaska NG pipeline began to look realistic.
the shale gas changed all that.
Those import LNG places are going to become export facilities within a decade.
The Alaskan pipeline will have to go to an export LNG facility to hope to survive. Many pushed for that in the first place. Others, like me, pointed out the economics of converting to LNG for transport took far more value out of the gas; Alaska would be better off with a pipeline that connected to dwindling supplies from Alberta to the US. But, as you said, the shale gas changed all that.
Plus, Devon bought Mitchell.
Plus, how all that set off the windmill building frenzy in Texas. Enron bought out the wind company Zond in 1997. Renewable standards for Texas established in 1999. Nat Gas shortages in 2001. Windmill boom follows. Enron goes under. Zond sold to GE.
There is another twist on the Alaska pipeline. Frank Murkowski negotiated his deal based on the pre-Katrina price of nat gas. Palin negotiated her deal based on the post-Katrina price. In hindsight, Murkowski had it right.