Posted on 10/13/2011 7:00:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
*FUBAR: A slang term originating in WWII, (broadly) meaning “suboptimal”.
How many times in the past four years have you read the sentence, “This time, it’s different”? Well, in the case of the U.S. economy, this time it really is different.
The most recent recession, which the NBER says started in January 2008 and ended in June 2009, was severe, but it was not that much worse than the downturn of 1981 – 1982.
The recession that started in mid-1981 lasted almost as long as the 2008 – 2009 downturn (16 months vs. 18 months), and actually produced higher peak unemployment (10.8% vs. 10.1%). The most recent recession did see larger losses in real GDP (5.4% vs. 1.5%) and total employment (4.2% vs. 1.9%), but inflation was much worse at the start of the 1981 downturn (13.2% vs. 3.6%).
What has been really, really, really different this time has been our so-called “economic recovery”.
We have now completed 27 months of the Obama recovery, which the NBER says started in July 2009. The economy appeared to weaken during the summer, but assuming that 3Q2011 comes in the same as 2Q2011, then over the nine calendar quarters of recovery, real GDP (RGDP) will have grown by a total of 5.34%, equivalent to an annualized growth rate of 2.34%. In contrast, during the first nine calendar quarters of the Reagan recovery, RGDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.33%, for a total gain of 14.81%. This advance brought RGDP up to a level that was 13.13% higher than it was at the start of the 1981 – 1982 recession. However, after nine quarters of the Obama recovery, RGDP has yet to regain its pre-recession level (it’s still down by 0.08%).
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
It's 'changed'............
The graph’s not useful unless the x axis is labeled. What is it?
FUBAR and FUBO!
FUBAR and SNAFU
Here’s the explanation of the graph:
The expansion of $100 through fractional-reserve banking with varying reserve requirements. Created with openoffice.org Calc. Data obtained by using information from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which explains how the process of fractional-reserve banking creates new money. See the description of the process on this page:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed45.html
It says:
Reserve requirements affect the potential of the banking system to create transaction deposits. If the reserve requirement is 10%, for example, a bank that receives a $100 deposit may lend out $90 of that deposit.
If the borrower then writes a check to someone who deposits the $90, the bank receiving that deposit can lend out $81.
As the process continues, the banking system can expand the initial deposit of $100 into a maximum of $1,000 of money ($100+$90+81+$72.90+...=$1,000). In contrast, with a 20% reserve requirement, the banking system would be able to expand the initial $100 deposit into a maximum of $500 ($100+$80+$64+$51.20+...=$500).
Thus, higher reserve requirements should result in reduced money creation and, in turn, in reduced economic activity.
FU beyond all recognition; Situation normal, all FU.
Does anyone really believe this?
It will soon be a cluster....
Nope and no one should believe it. They change the data sets, forumlas and weightings at will for unemployment, GDP, CPI, etc. They publish their changes on the respective websites -so I guess that makes it ‘ok’ for journalists to do the government’s bidding. Even the SGS website misses many of the government’s favorable adjustments of the figures.
This is why it’s “different this time” the economic numbers are not credible so nothing is responding accordingly. Real facts and numbers are public secrets. The rest is pablum to convince the voters things aren’t that bad.
No, no - the WWII term describing the economy forced on us by the WH is “SNAFU.” Don’t you remember??
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