Posted on 10/19/2011 10:34:37 AM PDT by Qbert
Herman Cain has surged into the lead in several national polls of GOP primary voters, but he remains in second place in most polls of early voting states.
That difference points to the challenge faced by Cain, who lacks the ground troops important in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, if he wants to turn his momentum into victories in early 2012.
In the Iowa caucuses, Real Clear Politics's average of recent polls show Romney leading Cain 22 percent to 18 percent. Cain is further behind Romney in New Hampshire, where the former Massachusetts governor is a heavy favorite.
Iowa likely represents Cain's best chance for a surprise victory. Caucuses are notoriously difficult to predict by polling and often favorable to new candidates with energized bases, and Cain is within striking distance. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) the early favorite in Iowa and winner of the Ames Straw poll, has faded in recent weeks. One poll from Public Policy Polling - a Democratic firm - even shows Cain leading, by a 30 percent to 22 percent margin.
Cain supporters are encouraged by this news, believing that Romney has hit a “glass ceiling” where no more than a quarter of Republicans are willing to vote for him, especially in caucus states where support requires greater effort.
From the campaign's perspective, an energized Cain could continue to draw money and votes from other candidates and undecided voters, amassing a coalition that will push him past Romney.
But Iowa in particular demonstrates how difficult that may be. Even as her national poll numbers have cratered, Bachmann maintains an average of 12 percent support in Iowa.
Meanwhile, Rick Perry is unlike to fall far below the 10 percent he has averaged in recent months. It would be hard to imagine things going worse for a campaign than they have for Perry since his rollout. The Texas Governor will be able to flex his financial advantage to build a better ground game.
Cain will have to scrap with those two - along with Romney and Ron Paul, who always posts a good showing in caucus contests - for the 21 percent who remain undecided.
If Cain is unable to win or place a close second in Iowa, the following weeks could be tough for the candidate.
In New Hampshire, Romney enjoys the largest lead of any candidate in any state polled so far. An averaging of recent polls shows Romney leading Cain by a margin of 40 percent to 15 percent, and the most favorable poll for Cain - a Harvard/Saint Anselm survey released last week - still shows the Godfather's Pizza CEO trailing by 18 percentage points.
From New Hampshire, the GOP contest will head west to Nevada, where Romney can rely on a strong Mormon turnout to buoy his prospects. Romney won the contest with more than 51 percent of the vote in 2008, and pollsters haven't even surveyed the state since early September.
So Cain might be heading into South Carolina - the first state where he now leads in the polls - on the heels of three straight defeats.
The Palmetto State might not offer much of a firewall, either – Cain currently only leads Romney by a single percentage point, 26 percent to 25 percent, according to the latest numbers from the American Research Group.
Like Iowa, South Carolina provides unique challenges from other candidates - Newt Gingrich, expected to be less of a factor in early contests, has steadily hovered between 8 and 10 percent in the polls there, while Rick Perry continues to maintain numbers that beat his national averages.
Still, there is a plausible path to victory for Cain, especially as the early GOP calendar continues to shuffle. Some candidates - including Cain - are currently threatening to boycott the Nevada caucus for squeezing New Hampshire's traditional week-before-and-after window, and the Granite State may move its primary into early December. If both happen, Romney's early momentum could be muted, especially if Cain places well or wins in Iowa.
The national polls also offer comforting signs for Cain: Romney has never cracked an average above 25 percent in the polls, and around 18 percent of voters are still up for grabs. If the Cain campaign's thinking holds - those voters would have already jumped to Romney if they were enthusiastic about him, and the Massachusetts governor's stagnant poll numbers betray a lack of enthusiasm - Cain could quite plausibly ride upset wins to the eventual Republican nomination.
Cain is ahead in Iowa, SC and Florida. The article starts out with a lie, no need to read any further.
OTOH, I can give you a host of examples where candidates won in the over rated and over hyped attention whore states of New Hampshire and Iowa and went on to lose the nomination, sometimes even failing to finish second.
My beeber needle will be stuned and broke if they jam Mitt down our throats as they did McCain.
Amen
Iowa is trivial, a media event
Florida is the telling event
“Cain is ahead in Iowa, SC and Florida. The article starts out with a lie, no need to read any further.”
The article is three days old, so it might not reflect all of the most recent (and fluctuating) polling. And yeah, maybe the author is selectively choosing from the various polls.
But I think the overall argument is still valid.
This poll from YESTERDAY shows some very different numbers than your article-
Herman Cain’s poll momentum is continuing for at least another week. PPP surveys conducted over the weekend in Ohio and Hawaii find him with a large lead in both states. That now makes 7 consecutive polls over the last 3 weeks- a national one and state polls in Ohio, Hawaii, Iowa, North Carolina, Nebraska, and West Virginia- that have found Cain leading the way.
In Ohio Cain’s at 34% to 19% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Ron Paul, 6% for Michele Bachmann, 5% for Rick Perry, 1% each for Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum, and 0% for Gary
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/
In a poll taken on Oct. 9th, Cain got 24% of the black vote. And he’s still hardly known at all.
Poll results here:
“But I think the overall argument is still valid.”
Which overall argument is that?
There is a concentrated effort on FR to make it look like Cain doesn’t have any ground game in these states but it is not true. In addition to his paid staff, there are thousands of volunteers in key states coordinating with his campaign.
“All this ink spilled and not one mention of the early primary state where every Republican nomination has been decided in the last 50 years: Florida.”
Good point.
(And why not take both?)
Ohio Cain +15
Hawaii Cain +12
Iowa Cain +8
South Carolina Cain +16
Cain leads by a significant margin in all the above states that have been recently polled.
Florida is a tossup and of course the RINO Romney is ahead in liberal New Hampshire, but who cares about New Hampshire, and since Florida will be losing half it's delegates that will be awarded proportionally anyway, it will be a wash anyway.
It would be simple to shut these guys up. Back it up with something, a link, a list, a report, anything.
Here’s this:
I’m no Cain supporter, but I think it’s time to start making our cases, not just using the same “I heard” or “you’re a freaking liberal” type crap.
“This poll from YESTERDAY shows some very different numbers than your article-”
Look at the date of the article.
I will not allow them to jam Romney down my throat. The only reason I held my nose and voted for McCain was because of Sarah Palin. No more. No way. No how. It is time for an ACTUAL conservative. I will vote 3rd party (or a write-in) and take my chances if it comes to that. IMHO Romney would be no better than Obama. But we have the power to control that NOW. Do not let the media choose our candidate!
"Which overall argument is that?"
That Iowa is a crucial state. Now, somebody pointed out that Florida may in actuality be the key (and largely forgotten) state- could well be. (Take 'em both...)
"There is a concentrated effort on FR to make it look like Cain doesn’t have any ground game in these states but it is not true. In addition to his paid staff, there are thousands of volunteers in key states coordinating with his campaign."
That's reading something in that I didn't say. In fact, it's the opposite of my intentions.
“That’s reading something in that I didn’t say. In fact, it’s the opposite of my intentions.”
That wasn’t necessarily directed at you - it was a “heads up” post.
This may interest you:
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2011/10/as-i-name-few-republican-candidates-for.html
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