Skip to comments.New cycle of tribal culture awaits Libya
Posted on 10/22/2011 10:48:28 AM PDT by Clive
The brutal end of Moammar Gadhafi was foretold.
It is an end that despots want to cheat, and some do, as Stalin and Mao did.
But Gadhafi became a hunted man, and it was only a matter of time when the hunt for him was over.
It was Gadhafis misfortune to fall into the hands of his tribal foes, unlike the Iraqi despot.
Saddam Hussein was, ironically, lucky to be found by American soldiers instead of being trapped like a hunted animal, and his life extinguished as mercilessly as he had killed his opponents.
There is none despised more in the Arab culture than a loser, and Gadhafi turned out to be a loser.
In a culture of tribal loyalties and vendettas, a strong man is feared, and a despot Gadhafi, Saddam Hussein, Hosni Mubarak, Bashar al-Assad of Syria puts fear into the hearts of people over whom he rules.
Once this fear dissolves, irrespective of how this occurs, the despot turns into a quarry to be hunted.
The irony in this swift reversal of a despots fortune comes with anarchy let loose and, as is common in Arab history, of mob rule and vengeance until another despot arrives to establish some sort of order through fear once more.
The cycle then is repeated unless some great power the Mongol armies, the Ottoman Turks, the European colonial authorities, the U.S. or the former Soviet Union imposes order directly, or through an intermediary over a people who have made an art of the tribal dictum of my enemys enemy is my friend.
The end of Gadhafi in Libya is an opening act of a new cycle of tribal ways.
It is the sheer naivete of the contemporary Western elite perhaps a result of having drunk deep and long the intoxicating brew of multiculturalism to entertain the idea that mob rule in Tripoli under the banner of the National Transitional Council (NTC) will morph into some sort of democracy.
A few hours before the hunt for Gadhafi ended, Mahmoud Jibril, the head of NTC and acting as the temporary prime minister of Libya, announced he will be resigning soon.
Jibrils explanation, though vague, indicated that the new Libya is headed into the uncharted waters of tribal rivalries and conflicts that were kept in check for 42 years by the now slain despot.
Jibril is a U.S.-trained economist and a technocrat with no stomach for the predictable conflict ahead, nor does he have the tribal resources of guns and money needed to wage this conflict.
It is also predictable that the eventual outcome of who eventually comes out on top in Tripoli will be those better armed, better organized and ideologically most resolute.
In other words, Islamists in Libya connected with the al-Qaida network of jihadists, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and funded by Saudi Arabs.
The new despot will proclaim the rule of Sharia, as the Taliban did in Afghanistan after the Soviet army was expelled with Western support.
And the fear of Gadhafis thugs will be replaced by the fear of the religious police, and the despot wearing the mantle of Islam will contain anarchy as the cycle of Arab history repeats itself.
Salim Mansur ping
I dont agree with this article, I think things are looking up tremendously for the libyan people and all across the arab world.
I guess time will tell who is right.
Tribal foes, what bull crap, does the writer have the killers id. the way the french are acting it was one of their foreign legion. If he does have the id the Russians want it.
Good one. You`re irony was hilarious.
Unless you`re naive and have never read the koran.
You base your optimism on.... what? There is zero precedent in Arab civilization and culture for the outcome you predict.
Optimism springs eternal, they say. To be optimistic about the outcome in Libya, though, requires some real effort.
There are just too many followers of the child molester, mohammed. Until islam is marginalized in that culture, and the people are actually set free from their own self-imposed slavery to ancient hatred and bigotry, life will continue to suck in all predominantly muslim countries.
A new strong man will take over—lets hope he is sane.
There are only two ways the Muslim countries of the Middle-East/north Africa can be governed. Either by a brutal oppressive theocracy (ex. Iran) or a brutal oppressive strongman dictator (ex. Syria).
“...I am more convinced now, as I wasn’t when Paul Kennedy wrote about the rise and fall of great powers, that the West has gone over the tipping point in its terminal decline. That intelligent people, or people who claim to be intelligent, (I have in mind the talking heads in the U.S. media such as Chris Matthews or Fareed Zakaria) cannot make the difference between the sham of the Muslim Brotherhood talking about freedom and democracy and the generic thirst in man to be free. These are the people who have like the Bourbons learned nothing and forgotten nothing. They are glibly about to put the Lenins of our time into trains heading for Moscows of our time, they find nothing odd that they are pushing for the Muslim Brotherhood to be taken into governing when everything needs to be done to keep the Muslim Brotherhood out even as one carefully negotiate the long historic transition of Arab societies from tribal autorcracy and military dictatorships to representative rule and constitutionally limited government...
It’s not a matter of ‘time will tell’ as you wrote. Time has in fact RUN OUT.
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