Posted on 10/25/2011 2:14:57 PM PDT by drewh
Nearly 20,000 soldiers have deserted in the last seven months, most of them in the last month. The number of deserters grows daily.
The recent death of Libyan dictator Kaddafi did not help morale for the government, or its troops.
The government is working its small force of loyal troops hard, and that raises growing concerns about the continued loyalty of the army.
With at least half the Syrian 400,000 security forces (police and army) of uncertain reliability, the government is using the 100,000 or so reliable killers (mainly Republican Guard and secret police, plus Hezbollah gunmen from Lebanon and terror groups living in Syria) to terrorize (and, increasingly, slaughter) those civilians who continue to oppose the government.
This is a risky strategy, because as more of the less reliable troops and police shoot back, it's a sign that the end of the dictatorship is looming.
But the government hard-liners, led by the president's brother (Maher Assad), have won the argument over how to handle the unrest. There's no going back from this, even though Iran is no longer backing the hardline approach.
The Assad clan apparently is ready for a fight to the death, but so are the Syrian people. The Assads know they can rely on the army officers and most of the intelligence agencies and secret police.
These men are tainted by their association with the government, and are usually non-Sunni. So if the reformers win, and the Assads fall, all these guys are out of a job, or worse.
The Assads are taking good care of these men, and assuring them that the government has the resources, and determination, to see this crisis through to a successful conclusion. But so are the reformers, who vastly outnumber the better armed minority supporting the Assads.
If Syria comes unglued, that’s another potential job opp for Obama.
I’ve got him penciled in as the next prez of Kenya in 2013, but he’d be a great fit for these Arab countries too.
And to have a couple of nukes...
I disagree, Gaddafi did exactly that, and look where it got him. The lesson for Arab dictators is resign, flee the country and never come back....
Of all, this is perhaps the most important one not to screw up. If Syria falls, it is most likely of all to fall under the influence by Iran. At least the Egyptians think of themselves as rivals to Iran. Syria has for years now been taking money, training, weapons from Iran. Israel may have an entire Iranian front on its northern border.
If NATO intervenes, it has to do so with the eye on containing Iran. If it doesn’t intervene and Syria falls, the Saudis will have to spend a fortune to keep its influence.
This is not a pro-Assad post. It is just that the risks against Israel grow ever larger by the month.
“The lesson for Arab dictators is resign, flee the country and never come back....”
.
Take the money and buy property in Miami Beach.
Because Iran demands it along with uhbummer..
That lesson is only true if Assad doesn’t fall. So far, you are correct, Assad was the only one to repress his people so effectively. Mubarak and Qaddafi are pansies compared to Assad. Funny how that worked... Qaddafi merely ‘threatened’ to kill civilian protestors and that earned him a NATO invasion. Assad has quietly killed thousands during the same period of time, and nary a peep.
I wonder what that Republican Guard is called in Syria and why it translates to Republican Guard in English?
Because Assad is Iran's boy, so Obama won't touch him.
Hey, Assad! Does the name Custer mean anything to you?
Gaddafi didn't get ruthless soon enough. He let the opposition organize and begin a rebellion. If he had not released prisoners in the East and neutralized Benghazi last year, he might still be in power. The lesson for dictators is to stop the opposition by any means early and keep the US out of your business. As another poster noted, it is also a good idea to have a couple of nuclear weapons to make sure you have insurance.
"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the US Government cannot pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government's reckless fiscal policies. Increasing America's debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that, the buck stops here. Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better."
~ Senator Barack H. Obama, March 2006
I think you can figure that one out. (Clue - who hates Israel the most gets a pass)
“If Syria falls, it is most likely of all to fall under the influence by Iran.”
I disagree. In Syria, Sunnis outnumber Shiites 6:1 and getting rid of Bashir is getting rid of a cruel minority govt. I suspect an overthrow will lessen Iran’s influence more than extend it.
Yes, you are correct, and the Alawite clan that runs Syria are aligned with the Shia politically and religiously. Which is why I said Saudi will have to break out the checkbook. Syria is the lynchpin in Iran’s strategic plans, funding Hamas and Hezbullah and pushing the MB in Egypt.
The country is so used to Iranian influence, it is difficult for me to see Iran sitting back and letting the revolution change the status quo, even with NATO support. They don’t have to be the same clan or even religion to strike a political bargain. The stakes will be very high for all involved.
We shall see.
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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That can’t be bad. Unless Iran is recruiting irregulars to lob mortars at Israel.
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