Herman Cain, Outlier

The New Yo9rk Times ^ | 27 Oct 2011 | NATE SILVER

[mandaladon]

Herman Cain, the Georgia businessman who has never held elected office, is tied for the lead in national polls of Republican voters — or perhaps even slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, as he was in Tuesday night’s New York Times/CBS News poll. Mr. Cain has also led in most recent polls of the Iowa caucuses and the South Carolina primary, has taken the lead in Ohio, and is close to Mr. Romney in Florida. If all you had to go on was the polls, you might think that Mr. Cain was the favorite to win the Republican nomination.

But then there are the nonpolling factors, some of which can be objectively measured and some of which cannot, but which would generally point toward Mr. Cain as being a second- or third-tier candidate. Mr. Cain has no endorsements from Republican members of Congress or Republican governors, and very few from officials in key early voting states. He has raised very little money. He has not hired well-known names for his campaign staff. He does not have traditional credentials. He has run for elected office just once before. He has begun to get a fair amount of media coverage, but the tenor of it has been fairly skeptical. His campaign commercials have been … interesting.

Has there ever been a candidate with such strong polling but such weak fundamentals? Almost certainly not, at least not at this relatively advanced stage of the race.

I’m working on a project that tries to assign grades to each of the Republican candidates in a wide variety of categories. Most of these, like polling numbers and establishment support (as measured through endorsements) can be quantified in some way, but a few like debating skill are more subjective.

[mandaladon]

But I do know what an analyst should not do: he should not use terms like “never” and “no chance” when applied to Mr. Cain’s chances of winning the nomination, as many analysts have.....................Cain's got his opponents going nuts.

[Jeff Head]

In the end, the only endorsement that will matter in terms of his winning office is the endorsement of the coters. If enough vote for him, he will win and take office.

What the politically connected/insiders/ are having a difficult time with is the fact that the people like and trust this man. That is what is fueling his campaign. As long as the people continue to do that...they will not be able to deflect or stop him.

Despite inexperience as a politician (which many of us count as a positive), people know he has been very successful as a hands on businessman with large companies. They also know he is plain spoken and a moral man, as in traditional morals. They trust him to get in there and use those qualities to solve problems for Americans.

Again, as long as enough of us retain that trust...they will not be able to stop him.

[Paperdoll]

Yeah, and now the NYT has fallen into the habit of making up it’s own news, fashioned out of pure wishful fairy gauze!

Herman Cain has never been a quitter. The stupid media says no, and Mr. Cain will come back with a strong YES every time! Go Herman Cain!

[sodpoodle]

From Wiki on Nate Silver (and he was Pablano at KOS)

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 0.9%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.
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We should keep an eye on him;)

[Sir Lurks Alot]

Vote “Cain For President” and get your next large Godfathers pizza for only $9.99!!

[Lady Lucky]

He has begun to get a fair amount of media coverage, but the tenor of it has been fairly skeptical.

He's gotten a fair amount of worship at FR too, and I'm fairly skeptical. However, he's better than Romney. Joe Isuzu is too.

[Fantasywriter]

You said it very well. Cain exudes an optimistic can-do spirit coupled w a passionate love of everything that makes this country great. He is the man of the hour, and the people will see that long before the pundits ever do.

[mandaladon]

Frankly, I think it is quite arrogant to say that the man leading in the polls two months before Iowa has no chance, especially given that there is a long history in politics and other fields of experts being overconfident when they make predictions..................Arrogant like BOR, Rove, Hume and other liberals fools.

[TADSLOS]

Outlier = Leading From The Front.

[Mygirlsmom]

While I generally think we have some of the very best in the nation, I am getting extremely annoyed with the conservative Talk Radio heads here in Milwaukee....(Belling, Sykes, Weber, and even Vickie McKenna) all of whom are referring to Herman Cain with sneering, "just an unqualified pizza guy who runs crazy commercials" "no campaign organization...just interested in going on a book tour" sort of comments. They totally dismiss him out of hand, and I now turn them off as soon as the subject comes up.

The champions of Ron Johnson, who knows more about the Senate than the rest of the 99 professional politician dolts put together can't see what a disservice they are doing in their "Romney is inevitable unless we all back Perry because there's nobody else" defeatism.

[ASA Vet]

Herman Cain

born December 13, 1945 in Memphis, TN (Meets the Jus Soli Requirement)

Parents were
Luther Cain Jr., born March 16, 1925 in TN, died March 29, 1982 in Atlanta, GA
Lenora Davis, born July 27, 1925 in GA, died August 20, 2005 in Atlanta, GA

Both parents were US Citizens at the time of his birth (Meets the Jus Sanguinis Requirement)

Herman Cain is a NATURAL BORN CITIZEN

Barry Soetoro aka Barack Hussein Obama ISN'T!

Click on the cane.

[Fantasywriter]

What you said! I listen carefully to the various conservative pundits, and as soon as they diss Cain, off they go. It’s more than just not wanting to hear it. I just don’t have any time or interest in those who advance the Ruling Class line. Heaven forbid we should get a guy in DC who would shake up business as usual. It’s scaring the old boys/corruptocrats witless. I hope and pray Cain wins the primary. He will kick the snot out of Little Barry in the first debate, and run the tables in the general.

[FourPeas]

The fact that Mr. Cain has made it this far with such apparently weak fundamentals — we’re less than 10 weeks away from the Iowa caucuses — is itself remarkable. It implies that there is either something fundamentally unusual about this year’s Republican nomination process, or perhaps that some sort of “new normal” has been established and that the old rules of how you win a nomination no longer carry as much weight.

Hmmm, one of the "experts" may just be on to something. All the combined so-called wisdom of the "experts" can't seem to fathom that Barry and his ilk have put us over the edge when it comes to The Ruling Class.

[Kolath]

yes we Cain !!!

[Bringbackthedraft]

Herman Cain, the Georgia businessman “who has never held elected office”,...................................Seems like this is the standard boiler plate start off sentence of the MSM, they who set the standard with an “experienced community organizer”, who by the way has held an elective office and found himself above his pay grade.

[Hugin]

I thought Obama was an outlier. He’s always out lyin’ to people.

[justsaynomore]

10 years ago, TV and radio would have been all you heard about that candidate. Thank goodness for the internet and social media - people are able to pull from a variety of sources and make their own decisions.

Imagine before, being able to read a candidate’s writing, or hear his speeches or check his stances on issues... It’s pretty incredible. I think it’s funny too, that the two oldest candidates are the two that use the new technology the best.

Like this posted on Cain’s FB today: Have questions about the 9-9-9 Plan? Text Cain999 to 90210! Please share this with your friends!

[TADSLOS]

No, Obama is an out and out liar.

[Hugin]

No, Obama is an out and out liar.

As opposed to Clinton, who was an in and out liar.

[mylife]

Interesting.
Here in Texas he gets respect from radio hosts.