Posted on 11/04/2011 12:07:30 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Russia Expects N.Korea to Collapse by 2020
The Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russia's foremost national policy think tank, takes the imminent collapse of the North Korean regime as a given in a special report published recently. IMEMO concludes that Korean reunification led by South Korea coincides with Russia's national interests.
IMEMO spent years to prepare the report, which is part of the Russian government's 20-year master plan and was published in September.
◆ The End of North Korea
The 480-page special report obtained by the Chosun Ilbo has five pages referring to the Korean Peninsula. It says the regime's collapse is "accelerating" and that although reunification may not be fully achieved, the two Koreas will take "actual steps" toward reunification in the next two decades.
IMEMO believes the 2012-2020 transfer of power from North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to his son Jong-un will trigger the collapse of the North. The leadership crisis will lead to a power struggle between "bureaucrats" with foreign business connections and "military and security officials" with no outside links, the report said.
Then over the following decade, a provisional North Korean government would be established under the aegis of the international community so that the North comes under South Korean control, while the North's military will be disarmed and modernization get underway, the report forecast. IMEMO said the North Korean economy will gradually be absorbed into South Korea's in the process and that around 1 million North Korean supporters of the old regime will flee to either China or Russia.
◆ South Korean-Led Reunification 'Beneficial'
IMEMO said the emergence of a reunified Korea led by South Korea would have a "positive effect" on Russia's position in the Asia-Pacific region. And with the situation on the Korean Peninsula stabilizing, Russia would "strengthen its diplomatic power in the Far East" and gain a "reliable partner," it added.
This would create opportunities for Russian businesses and the government to participate in massive transport, energy and industrial projects and create new demand for Russian energy, timber, metal and petrochemical exports, as well as machinery.
A diplomatic source said, "It has been an established theory that Russia and other regional powers surrounding the Korean Peninsula favor the status quo rather than reunification, but here is a top Russian think tank publicly welcoming reunification led by South Korea."
◆ Economic Growth
IMEMO forecast reunified Korea to see annual GDP growth of 3.5 percent before reunification (2011-2020), 2 percent during the process of reunification (early 2020s) and 5-6 percent in the final stage (late 2020s). The think tank projected that reunification would lay the groundwork for a new leap for the Korean economy.
Korea's GDP, which stood at $1 trillion in 2010, would rise to $1.7 trillion by 2020 and $2.3 trillion by 2030, IMEMO projected. Reunified Korea would have a per-capita GDP of $30,000, and its population would stand at between 76 million and 77 million.
The economic development of reunified Korea would have a strong correlation with the formation of a "three-sided" system in the region that includes China and Japan, according to the report. This would boost trade with other regions. By the early 2020s, North Korea's rapid economic development would lead to a trade deficit, but reunified Korea would be able to achieve a trade surplus by the late 2020s, the report added.
englishnews@chosun.com / Nov. 04, 2011 12:54 KST
P!
So there’s a honest to God chance we’ll collapse before North Korea ? Well that’s just **&&ing great
Is there any chance that China could absorb NK? Possibly as an autonomous zone or client state?
Actually it does, I am working on computer programming right now, that is where it comes from
Funny how that just so happens to be a socialist/communist country. Also funny how it appears that most of the OWS's actually reside in very pricey cribs.
The irony.
They might do good just by lounging on a yacht than making faux display of "conscience."
I don’t think so. For one, the Koreans north and south realize that absorption into china means the utter destruction of their self-identity. For another, the Chinese don’t want the mess that North Korea is — also, getting a radical communist state would only be a problem for the chinese oligarchy. they would prefer to have this stick to wag at the west — that they control but pretend to not control
NK has collapsed. The shell is being kept intact by China. I pray for the people of that nation.
It was inevitable.
It was just a question as to whether it would be as peaceful as Germany’s reunification or whether there is going to be a mass slaughter leading up to it.
This will be good for the US economy too, as America will be able to save billions because the demiliterized zone can finally be shut down.
Agree.
Koreans, both North and South, consider themselves a unique race in Asia.
Aren't they just descended of Altaic peoples? related to Mongols, Evenks, etc?
How about some contingency planning for China doing something other than idly watching and accepting the unification?
Last time they were nearly unified, China sent an incredible number of troops over the border and kicked our ass.
Oh but they’ve changed now, they’re gentle as little lambs right?
Seems optimistic. I seem to remember that Germany's reunification really dragged down "west" Germany's economy for almost a decade. And "east" Germany was nowhere near as bad a shape as the Norks.
GDP(USD) population GDP/capita
North 28.2 bn, 24.0 M, 1 200
South 1164 bn, 48.9 M, 23 800
GDP per capita South/North = 19.8 !
If we assume a peaceful collapse and then a reunification I would guess that the employment figures for North would be 10-20 % (i.e unemployment 80 - 90 %) the first year, then it will slowly go up to 50-60 % employment. Since the total population in N is about 50 % of S, this gives a total unemployment figure in the region of 30 % or so for the combined country.
The employment figures for North would not be higher than 70 % of the figures for the South for many many years. North has to replace its workforce that has irreparable damages in their brains due to malnutrition. Add the lack of normal education.
So the GDP of North will shrink some 40 % the first 2 (?) years and then the investments from South will slowly increase it by the fantastic figure of say 8 % the coming years. In order to get 50 % of the South GDP per capita it will then take about 40 years ( 1.08**37 = 20/0.6 x 50 %)
This assumes that South has 0 growth, if South is growing at 3 % then it will take about 60 years until North will have 50 % of the Southern economy and about 76 years until they have the same. This is about two generations of Norks.
A difficult task.
here http://www.cireq.umontreal.ca/personnel/hunt_german_unification.pdf is the story for Germany.
Obviously Russia doesn’t believe in the Mayan prophecy.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.