It’ll come down to a three way race: Romney, Gingrich and Cain. History favors Romney. But things could still be shaken up in the coming year.
FWIW. On this date 4 years ago:
RCP Average 11/11/2007
Giuliani 29.4
Thompson 17.0
McCain 15.0
Romney 12.4
Huckabee 9.0
Paul 3.8
There is still plenty of time for a big shake up.
I firmly believe events will shortly take control of this election cycle. Three huge events on the near horizon are Super Committee failure, Euro break up, Israel attack on Iranian nuke site. There are probably more coming too. And who knows what Obama has up his sleeve. The candidate that can deal best with the coming troubles will be the one to win the GOP nomination.
Romney 40%, Gingrich & Cain at 25%, Paul at 10%. Gingrich & Cain flip a coin on stage at convention for top billing & join forces for the win.