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To: TBBT

I see when the facts don’t validate you opinions, simply make up the facts.

This is a poll of LIKELY caucus goers.

So better come up with a new lie cause that one is not going to work.


19 posted on 11/18/2011 9:32:20 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie; TBBT; PSYCHO-FREEP; GOPyouth
Let's just look at the actual poll:

ISU Poll:

With fewer than two months before the Iowa Caucuses, a new Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll of 1,256 registered Iowa voters finds Herman Cain leading Republican presidential candidates among likely caucus goers, with Ron Paul second. However, the poll also suggests that voters are waiting to make up their minds.
...
But the race remains remarkably fluid. Respondents were asked how certain they were of their choice and the majority of them (52.3 percent) indicated that they were undecided. Another 30.1 percent answered that they were only leaning toward one candidate. Only 16.5 percent indicated that they had definitely decided whom they would support.
...
Of those polled, 377 (30.0 percent) stated that they definitely or probably would attend the Republican caucus on Tuesday, Jan. 3.
The problem sometimes with university polls is that they aren't well-defined. Most professional pollsters would have reported this poll as a poll of 377 likely voters. If you report it as 1296 registered voters, you are implying that the percentages you give were for the entire group. But if you only are reporting on the 377 that said they were likely, then the 1296 was simply your candidate pool, not your actual survey domain.

The survey information I've seen doesn't actually TELL us which is the case. You have to guess by the words they used.

Because most of the respondents were actually undecided, it appears they asked for "leaning" information to get the actual support values. Only 16.5% of the respondents were certain. SO looking at the "committed" support, you have 84% uncommitted, 4% Cain, 3.2% Paul, 2.5% Romney. 1.3% Perry.

In other words, in their group of 1296 people they contacted, 15 of them said they were sure they were going to caucus AND vote for Cain. 12 Paul, 10, Romney, and 5 said they were sure they were going to vote for Perry.

319 are available to any candidate. So the results are essentially meaningless.

And given that the survey took place over 2 weeks, and the 1st week was when conservatives were reacting angrily to the false attacks on Cain and sending him money and expressing support simply to show solidarity and prove that the liberal media wasn't trusted, it is likely that many of those "15" weren't really as supportive of Cain as you might like.

39 posted on 11/18/2011 9:52:32 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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