How Iowa's Social Conservatives Lost Their Influence

The New Republic ^ | 11/18/11 | Ed Kilgore

[Retro Llama]

This weekend's "Thanksgiving Family Forum" at a Des Moines megachurch probably seemed like a great idea to Iowa social conservatives when it was first developed. You'd have the presidential candidates arrayed around a "Thanksgiving table," obediently waiting for a symbolic serving of activist support. In the pews would be thousands of stolid Iowans of the sort most likely to show up at the January 3 caucuses. Wielding the microphone would be focus-group king Frank Luntz, probing the worldviews of the candidates to determine their fidelity to a teavangelical, big-God, small-government creed. And at the head of the table, in spirit at least, would be Iowa right-wing kingmaker Bob Vander Plaats, ready to crown one of the candidates as the Mike Huckabee of 2012.

It could still play out that way, of course, but the political context surrounding the Thanksgiving Family Forum, cosponsored by Vander Plaats' FAMiLY Leader group, the National Organization for Marriage, and Focus on the Family's CitizenLink affiliate, suggests the effort to unite Christian Right voters around a single candidate in Iowa could prove too little and too late. Mitt Romney isn't even bothering to show up for Vander Plaats's intended display of power, which may be a shrewd estimate of its futility. And with CSPAN pulling its cameras, the event won't even be televised (though it will be live-streamed by CitizenLink). Indeed, Iowa's social conservatives, long used to enjoying a remarkable degree of fealty from any GOP candidate hoping to catch fire as a result of a strong caucus showing, are facing an incredibly frightening prospect: their own irrelevance....

[Retro Llama]

I suppose this writer thinks he's terribly clever to have figured out what everybody already knows -- this is going to be an "IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!" election.

[fightinJAG]

I posted this on another thread about Vander Plaatz' group endorsement of Gingrich:

However, just as candidates should disclose when they receive money from activist groups, activist groups making endorsements should disclose contemporaneously that they, or their key cause, received money from a candidate.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Nowhere have Mr. Gingrich and his groups invested more heavily than in the key state of Iowa, figuring a win in February's first-in-the-nation caucuses could catapult him to the top ranks in the Republican nomination fight.

Wearing an array of organizational hats, he has met repeatedly with pastors, trained local candidates, consulted with doctors on his proposed health-care innovations and met with local refiners to tout ethanol.

After raising money through one of his groups, Mr. Gingrich funneled $150,000 in seed money to a successful campaign last fall to oust three Iowa Supreme Court judges who supported gay marriage.

"Newt's role was quiet and very low key, but it was pivotal," said Bob Vander Plaats, a well-known Iowa conservative who led the anti-judges campaign.

[blueunicorn6]

They voted out 3 liberal supreme court judges in Iowa? Wow. Now there’s a message.

[SuziQ]

I just think that BOTH Iowa and New Hampshire have lost their ‘seats of power’ when it comes to nominating a candidate. There have been many winners of both the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary who have NOT gone on to win the nominations of their parties. Both states still get a lot of press, and the MSM would like for folks to believe that the candidate spending a lot of time and money in both places is important, but in the grand scheme of things, I don’t believe it is, anymore.