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Cain, the GOP and the Black Vote
Real Clear Politics ^ | November 23, 2011 | Sean Trende

Posted on 11/24/2011 12:03:23 PM PST by MitchellC

[...]

Cain’s claim that he can win a sizeable chunk of the black vote has a reasonable theoretical basis. Unlike white and, to a lesser extent, Latino voters, African-American voters do not sort their votes neatly by ideology. In 2004, the last time two white candidates competed for the presidency, George W. Bush received 5 percent of the vote from the 30 percent of African American voters who considered themselves liberals, 9 percent of the 50 percent who considered themselves moderate, and a paltry 26 percent of the vote from the 20 percent of African Americans who consider themselves conservative. If Bush has performed as well among moderate and conservative African-American voters as he performed, respectively, among Latino voters with those ideological views, he would have won . . . 35 percent of the African-American vote.

[...]

But it will take more than simply papering over legitimate grievances to make that happen. And it certainly won’t happen with a candidate -- regardless of race -- who talks down to the voters that he seeks to persuade.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cain; hermancain
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I disagree with the analysis of the author, who for instance thinks Michael Steele receiving 25% of the black vote in the MD Senate race in the disastrous year of 2006 is some kind of failure - the fact is that in most any other year that would have meant a victory for Steele.

Here's a graph the author provides showing the percentage of the black vote received by Republicans in 2006 statewide races:



So after showing that Republicans can, with effort, improve quite a bit with blacks in even the worst of years, the author then posits that Cain isn't likely to do so, and says it's mostly because of his "brainwashed" remark, or as we know it in the real world, telling the damn truth.

I don't get it. But it's an interesting topic so I thought I'd throw it out there.

1 posted on 11/24/2011 12:03:27 PM PST by MitchellC
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To: federal__reserve; LS; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; Clintonfatigued
I disagree with the analysis of the author, who for instance thinks Michael Steele receiving 25% of the black vote in the MD Senate race in the disastrous year of 2006 is some kind of failure - the fact is that in most any other year that would have meant a victory for Steele.

Here's a graph the author provides showing the percentage of the black vote received by Republicans in 2006 statewide races:



So after showing that Republicans can, with effort, improve quite a bit with blacks in even the worst of years, the author then posits that Cain isn't likely to do so, and says it's mostly because of his "brainwashed" remark, or as we know it in the real world, telling the damn truth.

I don't get it. But it's an interesting topic so I thought I'd throw it out there.

=====

Also, let me emphasize that my support for Herman Cain is based on his being the all-around best candidate in terms of his stated positions, combined with his relative trustworthiness. However well he does with black voters is just a side bonus.
2 posted on 11/24/2011 12:12:54 PM PST by MitchellC (Of course I support Herman Cain. I'm a conservative.)
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To: MitchellC

This is a fool’s errand, given that the Democrats support a raft of affirmative action perks for blacks that would go away if the GOP had its way. What the GOP needs to go after is the white vote. If the GOP could breach 70% of the white vote, it would win most elections in a walk. The GOP needs to stress immigration enforcement left, right and center. No mass deportations, just stepped-up enforcement and laws penalizing employers who employ illegals with prison terms and felony convictions.


3 posted on 11/24/2011 12:18:58 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: MitchellC

Agree - it’s his stance on issues and his proven executive experience that puts me on the Cain train.

But hold on a minute. If we were to say, for example, we support Romney or Perry because because of their position on the issues, and the fact that they are White, or Bachmann because she is a Female, that wouldn’t go over well, would it?

Yet somehow it’s OK to talk about race as a reason why African-Americans might support a black candidate? Hmmm....


4 posted on 11/24/2011 12:19:04 PM PST by bigbob
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To: MitchellC

This is a fool’s errand, given that the Democrats support a raft of affirmative action perks for blacks that would go away if the GOP had its way. What the GOP needs to go after is the white vote. If the GOP could breach 70% of the white vote, it would win most elections in a walk. The GOP needs to stress immigration enforcement left, right and center. No mass deportations, just stepped-up enforcement and laws penalizing employers who employ illegals with prison terms and felony convictions.


5 posted on 11/24/2011 12:19:16 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Zhang Fei; LS; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; Clintonfatigued

The GOP will NEVER in the wildest dream get 70% of white vote. Most union members and teachers and lawyers etc are more white than non-white. Forget about breaking into that group. Ditto with Jewish liberals. Not gonna happen in 2012.

Also there are 3 times as many whites on welfare as non-whites. So forget about breaking into that group.

So...........the most realistic approach for GOP is to win over a higher percentage of middle class non-whites. In 2012 Cain has a better chance of doing that than any others. I am also aware that a small percentage of republicans will have a hard time voting for any black man in 2012. Racial prejudice is dying but not dead.


6 posted on 11/24/2011 12:35:17 PM PST by federal__reserve (What matters in 2012 is jobs, jobs, jobs! Jobs kill unemployment, foreclosures & deficits)
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To: Zhang Fei

I agree with you about the GOP and the white vote, but it is not a fool’s errand to attempt to chip away at the black vote. It’s utter foolishness to forever concede the black votes to the Democrats, if you ask me. We have to start being real with blacks and actually court them, because we aren’t guaranteed the white vote forever. We can’t put all of our eggs in that one basket and with the way demographics are changing it would be stupid to do so.

I agree about making immigration enforcement a much bigger issue (although I’m not ruling out large-scale deportations). A big part of the problem here, and this relates back to our problems with blacks I think, is that we need to eject a lot of these white liberal “centrists” from our party who both block us from doing anything on issues like immigration, AND saddle us with the image of being the party of rich white elites. It’s gotten to the point where we basically gain nothing from having these *ss-holes in our party. We need to dump them for the sake of our long-term credibility.


7 posted on 11/24/2011 12:35:42 PM PST by MitchellC (Of course I support Herman Cain. I'm a conservative.)
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To: bigbob
Yet somehow it’s OK to talk about race as a reason why African-Americans might support a black candidate? Hmmm....

That's just one of the ugly facts of electoral politics. I don't see how it hurts to point out the reality of the situation, so long as you aren't advocating we nominate him solely because he's black.
8 posted on 11/24/2011 12:39:27 PM PST by MitchellC (Of course I support Herman Cain. I'm a conservative.)
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To: federal__reserve
You are correct.
9 posted on 11/24/2011 12:40:52 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Perry and his fellow demorats.)
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To: federal__reserve
I am also aware that a small percentage of republicans will have a hard time voting for any black man in 2012. Racial prejudice is dying but not dead.

I'm disgusted even thinking about that. Note to any Republican who feels that way: GTFO of my party.
10 posted on 11/24/2011 12:42:33 PM PST by MitchellC (Of course I support Herman Cain. I'm a conservative.)
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To: MitchellC
I think Cain can get at the minimum a 20-80 split with Obama.

AND that changes everything for the next 50 years.

11 posted on 11/24/2011 1:14:41 PM PST by CainConservative
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To: federal__reserve
Also there are 3 times as many whites on welfare as non-whites.

This shibboleth is untrue. I used to hear it all the time, and actually believed it for a while. My guess is that it's of a piece with the liberal belief that conservatives were responsible for JFK's assassination.

As of 2009, whites were about 1/3 of welfare cases. This has been the case since the 90's, when the numbers looked like this:


12 posted on 11/24/2011 1:22:47 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: MitchellC
At this point, I really don't care who we nominate, just that we toss Oblame-o-the-Marxist-Clown out for good. Just about anyone we select will have a mandate to reduce the size and scope of government and put the fuel-can back into the hands of the private sector.

And when we turn the corner, the Sleepingbaggers/communists/anarchists/anti-semites will only appear in the rearview mirror. Screw them, let 'em eat our dust- along with the rest of the world who embrace tyranny, socialism, Islamism.

13 posted on 11/24/2011 1:32:17 PM PST by budwiesest (It's that girl from Alaska, again.)
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To: Zhang Fei

In my “welfare” I am including any one who gets a check from the government without having to work for it. So include people on supplemental social security, unemployment for 99 weeks, disability checks, rental subsides, heating subsidies, free breakfast & lunch at school, childcare subsidies, tax credits for low income earners, etc etc etc. My own relatives have received SS checks without having worked one single day in US. And they are die hard democrats.

It is just not AFDC (aid for dependent children) that is free money. All these people will rarely vote for any candidates who wants to cut it off or trim it.


14 posted on 11/24/2011 1:36:24 PM PST by federal__reserve (What matters in 2012 is jobs, jobs, jobs! Jobs kill unemployment, foreclosures & deficits)
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To: federal__reserve
Medicaid numbers:


15 posted on 11/24/2011 1:40:19 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: MitchellC

I’m still planning on voting for Cain. The smear has not changed my mind. And I don’t want to elect somebody who is more experienced at deflecting horrible accusations, because there is often a reason behind the skill. I’m fine with the fact that he seems to be inexperienced at deflecting accusations of wrongdoing. Perhaps he’ll avoid this kind of wrongdoing in the future if he realizes he is not that good at dispelling it, and the press will not give him a break.


16 posted on 11/24/2011 2:37:27 PM PST by ME-262 (We need Term Limits for the federal house and senate. We need new Bums up there.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Black Americans do not want affirmative action perks. Period. That lie is something that has been put on Black America as a means of devaluing our existence in this country.


17 posted on 11/24/2011 2:52:36 PM PST by Rooivalk
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To: CainConservative
I think Cain can get at the minimum a 20-80 split with Obama. AND that changes everything for the next 50 years.

Exactly. There is a window of opportunity here that can derail this leftist stranglehold the dems have on the Black community
18 posted on 11/24/2011 2:57:20 PM PST by Rooivalk
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To: MitchellC
Lets be clear about one fact: The majority of households in the Black community are headed by women. This cripples males. And the rest of America is rapidly headed in the same direction with the adoption of the feminist agenda

We can get behind Cain and turn this around. Here is a man. Cain, who has been married a number of years, is a Christian, and has fought his way up through the ranks to attain the position where he is today

There is no better example to present to young males in the Black community that you can make it in America without turning to crime, sports, or entertainment. I am behind this man no matter what.
19 posted on 11/24/2011 3:05:57 PM PST by Rooivalk
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To: federal__reserve

It has been a longtime question for me as to how all these non-contributors were allowed to benefit from other people paying SS dues. I suspect it has/had to do with prosperous times and social activation. Whatever the situation it is indeed burdensome in times like now.


20 posted on 11/24/2011 3:19:36 PM PST by noinfringers2
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