Why Isn’t North Dakota’s Senate Race a Tossup?

Roll Call ^ | December 1, 2011 | Stuart Rothenberg

[SMGFan]

Two polls conducted by reputable Democratic pollsters show Republican Rep. Rick Berg to be in serious trouble in the North Dakota Senate race, especially now that former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) has entered the race. The first survey, conducted in mid-August well before Heitkamp jumped into the contest, was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. It found voters preferring Berg over a Democrat by a mere 4 points — 44 percent to 40 percent — in a generic Senate ballot test. Only 33 percent of respondents rated Berg’s job performance as good or excellent, while 55 percent termed it only fair or poor. Berg, the prohibitive favorite for his party’s Senate nomination, has dismal personal ratings (31 percent positive to 34 percent negative), suggesting he has problems back home. “I have been polling in North Dakota since 1985, and Congressman Berg’s personal and performance ratings are the lowest by far I have ever measured for any federally elected official in the state, Republican or Democrat,” veteran Democratic pollster Geoff Garin observed in a polling memo.

[SMGFan]

cookpolitical.com moved the race to a toss up.

[wny]

I got to believe any credible, respectable R candidate walks away with an open Senate seat in ND....I can not believe the people of ND would elect a demhole who would go to DC and help Obama shut down the ND oil boom. Is it realistic to believe enough voters would vote against Obama but for a demhole for the senate? I just don’t see it. ND has to be lean-R at least.

[skaterboy]

Two polls conducted by reputable Democratic pollsters

maybe thats why stu..duh

[skaterboy]

if they yell conservative democrat lie the maybe...it worked in wva and elsewhere

[Cicero]

Well, I read the article, but it does not explain why Rick Berg is unpopular with the voters. What has he done? How has he offended them? Too conservative? Too RINOish?

The article is singularly weak on explanations.

But we certainly need all the conservative Republicans in the Senate that we can get.

[Redmen4ever]

The early partisan polls are mostly to see what the up-side potential is for a party’s potential candidates. In this case, the upside potential is for the Democrat to lose but only by a few points.

Even so, the Democrats can’t concede too many seats without undermining their Senate candidates in other states. Plus, North Dakota is a tiny state and it doesn’t cost a lot to contest the election.

[stylin19a]

I can not believe the people of ND would elect a demhole who would go to DC and help Obama shut down the ND oil boom

If I were running in ND, that would be my campaign...period.

[ScottinVA]

I`m not as confident about the chances of taking the Senate as I was a few months ago.

[Longbow1969]

I`m not as confident about the chances of taking the Senate as I was a few months ago.

Yup, gotta agree. The dynamic that has been in place since election 2010 is working against us. We had a major wave election, but failed to take the Senate. This means that the Republicans can't pass anything and force Obama to defend his veto's. As is, almost nothing can pass. The Democrats and media have been very clever at leaving the impression that this is the "Republican Congress" even though we don't have the Senate. We look like we can't pass anything, and the public is too stupid to understand that the Dems still control the Senate. This may end up being more an anti-incumbent election in 2012 than an anti-Democrat one. If that is the case, we could see significant losses in the House and modest gains in the Senate. Modest gains in the Senate might not be good enough to retake the chamber.

[Lion Den Dan]

but it does not explain why Rick Berg is unpopular with the voters

Berg has done nothing but bote to increase our debt. He has no leadership and is a total milque toast.

North Dakota is like 2 states in one. The eastern half has the major population in Fargo, Grand forks and Minot and is strongly Democrat. The rest of the state is quite conservative but lacks the population to out vote the eastern power centers.

Berg held the affection of the eastern power brokers with ties to banks and real estate and the Dems did not have a candidate. Now, Heidy Heitcamp, an ultra liberal rat from an established political family is going to flex her muscle once again. Her brother Joel, an ex state rep, has a morning talk show which is an in-kind contribution to Heidy. To listen to his program you would swear it is the voice of the Communist Psrty USA.

[Verginius Rufus]

When did they move Minot to the eastern half of the state?

[Cicero]

Thanks. That’s what I guessed, but had no way of knowing. Unfortunate.

[Pining_4_TX]

Farmers have a lot of clout in the sparsely populated states like the Dakotas. Perhaps they are afraid Republicans will cut their subsidies. Just a theory.