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The Ron Paul Factor (Why he's surging even as others are stagnant or stumbling)
National Review ^ | 12/06/2011 | Robert Costa

Posted on 12/06/2011 7:14:19 AM PST by SeekAndFind

Rep. Ron Paul rarely makes news, and his candidacy is frequently ignored by Beltway reporters. But headlines, his aides say, are overrated. In fact, the Texas Republican’s low-key autumn was strategic. As Paul’s competitors stumbled and sparred, he amassed a small fortune for his campaign and built a strong ground operation. And with January fast approaching, his team is ready to surprise the political world and sweep the Iowa caucuses.

“This was a movement when he first started running in 2008,” says Trygve Olson, a senior Paul adviser. “Now it’s turned into a highly professionalized campaign, but the energy from that last run is still there, and at the heart of what’s keeping up his momentum.”

The latest polls back up that confidence. In the influential Des Moines Register poll published over the weekend, Paul placed second. Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, captured 25 percent of likely Iowa GOP voters, but Paul garnered 18 percent, two points ahead of Mitt Romney, who in 2008 placed second in the caucuses.

If Paul wins Iowa, the upset could upend what many politicos say is a two-man race between Gingrich and Romney. According to state GOP insiders, a Paul victory is a real possibility. In background conversations, many say Paul is much stronger than outside observers believe, with deep and wide support among a frustrated electorate. With Herman Cain’s departure from the race, operatives see Paul potentially collecting a quarter of caucus attendees.

“Ron Paul is definitely for real out here,” says Tim Albrecht, the communications director for Iowa governor Terry Branstad, who has not endorsed any GOP candidate. “He is going to get 18 percent in the caucuses no matter what. If there’s a snowstorm, he’ll probably win, since he has such dedicated, passionate supporters. The question is whether he can move higher than that.”

Paul, for his part, thinks that he can close in on Gingrich, who has seen a recent bump in both state and national polls. “We’re getting pretty close to it being within the margin of error,” Paul told CNN on Sunday. “I think we continue to do what we’re doing. We’ve had the flavors of the month up and down so far this campaign. I’d like to think of myself as the flavor of the decade.”

Indeed, Paul’s consistency, his strategists say, is integral to his strength, especially in Iowa, where GOP voters have shuffled through an array of favorites. “Iowans, after testing Bachmann, after testing Perry, after testing Cain, and now Gingrich, are realizing that Ron Paul, all along, has been their candidate,” says Fritz Wenzel, Paul’s pollster. Unlike many primary fights, “this is becoming a race about principles,” he says, “and Ron Paul has stood up for true conservative principles for decades, not just in the last month.”

But campaign strategy, of course, has also played a major role in sustaining Paul’s poll numbers. The campaign combines a strong online presence, centered on volunteer organization, with prolific fundraising. Perhaps more important, however, is Paul’s “traditional” strategy in Iowa, which combines a heavy candidate presence with constant mailings and outreach.

“He’s run the most traditional caucus campaign of the year,” Albrecht says. “Multiple mailers, multiple ads, and multiple visits. Rick Perry has run ads, but hasn’t really visited. Mitt Romney has taken the shy approach, and Newt Gingrich hasn’t been here as often.”

“We’re following the traditional model because it works,” says Drew Ivers, the campaign’s Iowa chairman. “This is the fifth time I’ve chaired an Iowa campaign, and in this state, you can’t beat grassroots politics. The caucuses are like a business meeting. You don’t just come and vote; you go to participate. You need committed supporters; we have them.”

Steve Grubbs, who recently worked as Herman Cain’s Iowa director, has seen the enthusiasm for Paul up close. “I was driving down Interstate 80 two weeks ago and saw a hitchhiker carrying a Ron Paul sign. I didn’t pick him up, but I’m sure a Paul supporter gave him a ride,” he says. “I spot them everywhere, wearing their T-shirts and carrying signs.”

You’ll also find thousands of Ron Paul backers on the web — on message boards and on social-networking sites — talking about Paul and his criticism of U.S. foreign policy and the Federal Reserve. As Paul’s team invests in the ground game, it is taking care to intertwine its above-ground legwork with that web world. And it’s paying off, his advisers say, not only through donations, but in building a cohesive network of voters. An early example of its power came in August, when Paul nearly won the Ames straw poll, finishing a close second to Michele Bachmann.

“Ron Paul’s Internet operation is to Republicans in 2012 what Barack Obama’s Internet operation was to Democrats in 2007 and 2008,” Olson says. “It’s very grassroots and national, with thousands of very active supporters who spread the message in every state. That energy is the undercurrent to what’s happening on the ground, where people are going person to person.”

Still, even with the top-tier showing in Iowa polls and recognition by Iowa operatives of their on-the-ground prowess, Paul’s advisers aren’t taking anything for granted. In coming weeks, “Ron Paul is going to be living part-time in Iowa,” says Dimitri Kesari, Paul’s deputy campaign manager. The entire focus will be on coordinating turnout and stoking enthusiasm. Over 500 college students, for example, will move to Iowa over the holidays to participate in an initiative called “Christmas Vacation with Ron Paul.”

“He’s a different kind of candidate,” Kesari acknowledges, a “highly organized outsider.” But in January, he could also be a winner. And Iowans, at least, wouldn’t be surprised.

— Robert Costa is a political reporter for National Review.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: libertarian; libertarianism; ronpaul
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To: Iggles Phan

Can you please tell me how RP is strong on America’s defense, because I just do not see it.
Please enlighten us.


81 posted on 12/06/2011 9:29:32 AM PST by kaila
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To: standing man
"What is more conservative than returning to a constitutional govt."

Then why does spend pork barrel money in his district?

Do you Paul drones live in a bubble and wear mule blinds?

82 posted on 12/06/2011 9:30:15 AM PST by lormand (A Government who robs Peter to pay Paul, will always have the support of Paul)
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To: Gadsden1st
"Ron Paul is the only one who ...."

Fawning cult worship on display.

I wish I had a nickle for each "ron paul is the only..." spam I read.

I think it's save to say this however....

Ron Paul is the only one who blames America.

83 posted on 12/06/2011 9:35:49 AM PST by lormand (A Government who robs Peter to pay Paul, will always have the support of Paul)
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To: standing man

Your statement about all ‘people’ being treated equal (as if I am against that) is pure leftist propaganda. Homosexuality is not a type of person. It is a type of behavior. It is not a Constitutional principle that all behavior should be treated equally despite the perversions that Ron Paul preaches.

In my opinion Ron Paul ecposed hinmself greatly with this vote of his. It shows that he is a leftist in regards to the military and with his willingness to continually distort the Constitution and the position of the Founders.


84 posted on 12/06/2011 9:35:49 AM PST by TheBigIf
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To: Iggles Phan
strong on America’s defense

NO he is not. There has not been a terrorist he has not made excuses for, he has no understanding of defense of America.

You are correct about Romney, he could have after France volunteer.

As far as Gingrich, he had medical issues, they would not have taken him.

My husband volunteered and had medical issues. They would not take him - period.

I have zero idea about Gingrich's marriage, if it was sincere or not and neither do you.

85 posted on 12/06/2011 9:38:21 AM PST by svcw (God's Grace - thank you!)
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To: standing man

You also are now preaching what I consider to be typical leftist propaganda as well with your statement claiming that we cannot legislate morality. All laws (legislation) regulate morality. All laws are moral codes. Morality is the human determination of right and wrong and all laws set forth a statement of right and wrong in regards to some aspect of human life.


86 posted on 12/06/2011 9:42:23 AM PST by TheBigIf
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To: TheBigIf

leftist propaganda. I am just a little to the right of Ghengas Khan


87 posted on 12/06/2011 9:48:20 AM PST by standing man (stand tall)
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To: Gadsden1st

thanks Gadsden. Well said.

Certainly the RinoCracy understands Flyover Country exists for them....rather than they for us...


88 posted on 12/06/2011 9:48:21 AM PST by mo
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To: standing man

Not if you believe that some laws are moral laws and others are not. (That is a leftist anti-religion viewpoint) All laws are a form of legislating morality.

You dont get to pick and choose and call some laws examples of legislating morality and claim that others are not. The leftist likes to play this game because they despise religion and like to divide laws this way the same way they divide people this way.


89 posted on 12/06/2011 9:58:26 AM PST by TheBigIf
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To: TheBigIf
How did prohibition work out for us.
we have laws on the books that state i have to rent my house to a gay if they want it, have to give a job to one if they want it,I don't have the right to refuse service to someone whose lifestyle I find abhorrent. are these laws you support?
a constitutionally based society there would not be any special privilege no special rights and I would have the right to choose my associates.
90 posted on 12/06/2011 9:58:39 AM PST by standing man (stand tall)
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To: standing man

Whether a law worked well or not is not the issue here. And it is Ron Paul who voted to give special treatment to homosexuality and is pushing to force our troops to have to bunk and shower with people who are expressing an open perversion for the same gender by using the propaganda of claiming that we cannot legislate morality.

The leftwing and the libertarians both are pushing to force a perverted morality on people using legislation while at the same time claiming that you cannot legislate morality. They are all liars. All laws are legislating morality and we have every right in the world Constitutionally to make laws banning homosexual behavior.

How is Ron Paul supporting the right to association (which you mention) by supporting the homosexual agenda in the military as he did?


91 posted on 12/06/2011 10:03:48 AM PST by TheBigIf
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To: standing man

I do not at all support the laws you mention that protect homosexuality and treat it as if it sacred or something. Homosexuality is a corruption of natural human sexuality and there should be laws being made against it.

Ron Paul though voted to protect it in the military and to force soldiers to have to associate with it claiming that it has to be treated as being equal to heterosexuality.


92 posted on 12/06/2011 10:07:01 AM PST by TheBigIf
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To: svcw

“As far as Gingrich, he had medical issues, they would not have taken him.

My husband volunteered and had medical issues. They would not take him - period.”

That’s the point. Gingrich didn’t even try to volunteer. I know many people in the Army who had disabilities that they could have got out on, but they still served proudly.

“I have zero idea about Gingrich’s marriage, if it was sincere or not and neither do you.”

We do know that ultimately it was not sincere. ... Till death do us part.


93 posted on 12/06/2011 10:09:20 AM PST by Iggles Phan
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To: TheBigIf

I am not trying to be argumentative, perhaps I am not aware of some of RPs positions.
please reference where he voted, stated that he would give special rights to gays.


94 posted on 12/06/2011 10:09:20 AM PST by standing man (stand tall)
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To: GlockThe Vote

There is a vast difference between a lack of vigilence and Paul’s claims that American foreign policy caused this. That is propaganda from our enemies and he buys it. Frankly it scares me much more than the ‘supposed’ FED issues.


95 posted on 12/06/2011 10:12:23 AM PST by DrymChaser (It's amateur hour at the White House, unfortunately it means Curtains for America.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Photobucket I think that his poll numbers have went up since he has finally found a good glue to hold his eyebrows on.
96 posted on 12/06/2011 10:21:43 AM PST by RetSignman
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To: standing man

“you can not legislate morality”

We seriously need to debunk this myth. If you can’t legislate standards of conduct in a society of free people, then what can you legislate?


97 posted on 12/06/2011 10:23:55 AM PST by DrymChaser (It's amateur hour at the White House, unfortunately it means Curtains for America.)
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To: kaila

“Can you please tell me how RP is strong on America’s defense, because I just do not see it.
Please enlighten us.”

As Commander-in-Chief, Dr. Paul will lead the fight to:

* Make securing our borders the top national security priority.

* Avoid long and expensive land wars that bankrupt our country by using constitutional means to capture or kill terrorist leaders who helped attack the U.S. and continue to plot further attacks.

* Guarantee our intelligence community’s efforts are directed toward legitimate threats and not spying on innocent Americans through unconstitutional power grabs like the Patriot Act.

* End the nation-building that is draining troop morale, increasing our debt, and sacrificing lives with no end in sight.

* Follow the Constitution by asking Congress to declare war before one is waged.

* Only send our military into conflict with a clear mission and all the tools they need to complete the job – and then bring them home.

* Ensure our veterans receive the care, benefits, and honors they have earned when they return.

* Revitalize the military for the 21st century by eliminating waste in a trillion-dollar military budget.

* Prevent the TSA from forcing Americans to either be groped or ogled just to travel on an airplane and ultimately abolish the unconstitutional agency.

* Stop taking money from the middle class and the poor to give to rich dictators through foreign aid.

In short, he will follow the Constitution and respect the Sovereign Nation, States, and individual.

He will NOT be a Globalist Liberal like Gingrich who seeks to goad this country into more wars, further weakening this Nation into bankruptcy, and in the process implement the Toffler communist ‘Third Wave’ agenda.

Internationalism = Globalism = Communism

They accomplish this through endless wars and conflicts that bankrupt Nations.

That’s why they called it the ‘Communist INTERNATIONAL’.

Gingrich is a Globalist.

Ron Paul is a Sovereignist.

Ron Paul 2012 - Defending America’s Sovereignty


98 posted on 12/06/2011 10:26:38 AM PST by Iggles Phan
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To: GlockThe Vote
Not really a great idea...

Heroin clubs?

Coke stores?

LSD driving academy?

99 posted on 12/06/2011 10:26:41 AM PST by ejonesie22 (8/30/10, the day Truth won.)
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To: lormand

Funny how you side stepped what I said.

He is unelectable and unsuitable for President.

His criticism of the Fed is correct.

We need to scale back our military entanglements oversears. Or where do you plan to find the money for this.


100 posted on 12/06/2011 10:27:06 AM PST by desertfreedom765
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