2012 Republican Race: The Field May Not Be Closed

Larry Sabato Crystal Ball ^ | 120811 | Rhodes Cook, Senior Columnist

[Fred]

Conventional wisdom is that the Republican presidential field is set, and that it is much too late for a new candidate to enter the race.

In years past, that would be absolutely correct. Over the last few decades, dozens of primaries and caucuses have been shoe-horned into the opening weeks of the election year, with the tendency on the Republican side for the front-running candidate to score a quick knockout.

But next year, the arrangement of the primary calendar is much different. It is less condensed at the front, much more loaded with events at the back, with the prospect of a viable, late-starting candidate quite real.

This is not to say that it will happen, but simply to note that it could. Such a scenario could not have unfolded in 2008, when the early January events were followed in short order by an early February Super Tuesday vote-fest that involved nearly half the country.

[mk2000]

I highly doubt anyone else is getting in at this late date. What you see is what we get. I believe this is Sabato and his Dem friends forgetting how a normal primary process works. For better or worse it can be bloody. I think they conveniently forgot how Clinton and Barry went at it along with the other losers on the left. Just wait till the nominee for the Republicans is chosen then it will get really bloody from the dems and hopefully the Republican nominee will hit back twice as hard.

[Howie66]

I can’t speak for anybody else, but I am not impressed in the least with the current crop of GOP “wannabes”.

As it stands, it’ll come down to Anybody But Ubama.

I am praying that we can do better than this.

[milwguy]

I have been calling for Operation Republican Chaos for some time now. Keep Mitt in 3rd-4th, Newt in 2-3rd, and Ron Paul 1 in Iowa. In NH vote Bachmann or Santorum. Once we get through the first 4-5 primaries and nobody has clear path to the nomination, hopefully a decent candidate like Paul Ryan will jump in. Christie is way too RINO, but Daniels would be fine with me also.

[Libloather]

The field shouldn’t be closed for the RAT race. They’re gonna have big problems with the rookie Hussein.

[noinfringers2]

I would like to have Lt. Col./Congressman West brought onto the stage. All around he stands head and shoulders above others as to background and family especially wives.

[Notwithstanding]

Reality bites:

No one can just “jump in”. Candidates have to jump through hoops to get on the ballots.

Please alert us when you are posting a fantasy (we all have them) rather than something reasonably plausible.

[stuartcr]

Since the day he was elected, hasn’t it really always been about anyone but Obama?

[Dr. Sivana]

. I believe this is Sabato and his Dem friends forgetting how a normal primary process works.

No. He knows how the primary process works just fine. He's acknowledging rules changes. As recently as 1976, Jerry Brown and Frank Church entered VERY late to challenge Carter. If Scoop Jackson and Mo Udall didn't run out of money, they collectively might have stopped Jimmy Carter from getting the nomination on the first ballot.

I don't know which states allow uncommitted slates, but that would be another approach. Also, individual states could pick favorite sons to keep things open. Unfortunately, Romney has too many stooges at that level to make that a good idea.

[milwguy]

Ahh...so Larry Sabato posts this article for pure entertainment purposes. Thanks for your elucidating comments. The whole premise of the article is that candidates can jump in late, so obviously Sabato has done some research on filing deadlines and thinks it is still possible for a new canddiate to jump into the race. Did you actually read the article or are you so smart you don’t need to read something before bestowing upon FR your wisdom??

These two paragraphs, had you bothered to read them, might have informed you before you spout off nonsense........The main problem calendar-wise for late-starting candidates is there is often a lag time of two to three months between a primary filing deadline and the primary election itself. As a result, a candidate that jumped into the race early next February would still be too late to get his or her name on the ballot in all the primaries through early April, roughly 20 states in all. In these states, a late starter would have to be creative — “adopting” the Uncommitted line, for instance, in states where they are listed or mounting write-in campaigns in states where they are permitted.

But a late-starting candidate would be able to compete in caucus states immediately, where filing deadlines are rarely an issue. There will be fully a dozen states, plus territories, that will be holding their caucuses from Feb. 4 on. They will be offering a total of roughly 450 delegates

[RichInOC]

There’s this wonderful thing called the write-in line.

[altura]

Gotta post this again.

There are 4 ways to vote for Obama:

1. Vote for Obama
2. Write in a candidate
3. Vote third party
4. Don’t vote.

Hope everyone regains their sanity when it comes down to it.

Anybody but Obama is not compromise. It’s true and vital for the well being of the country.

[Joe Boucher]

To be real honest with ya Howie,
I’ve not been too impressed with any Republican since Ronald Reagan ran for a second term.
Which means I’ve voted for some real crap.
Not this time, NO RINOs.

[LADY J]

"Which means I’ve voted for some real crap.

Not this time, NO RINOs."

I'm with you!! I'm NOT going to do it!!

[deport]

Accurate or not I don't know but this is one list of the schedule.

2012 Primary Schedule

The 2012 GOP primary/caucus schedule is nearly set in stone. The calendar dates below are believed to be accurate unless last minute changes occur to the schedule. Always check with your local board of elections to verify election dates, times and locations ahead of time. Note that "Super Tuesday" in 2012 falls on March 6th, however, it is a little less "super" than it has been in years past.

Full Primary/Caucus Calendar

January 3, 2012	Iowa (caucus)
January 10, 2012	New Hampshire (primary)
January 21, 2012	South Carolina (primary)
January 31, 2012	Florida (primary)
February 4, 2012	Nevada (caucus)
February 4–11, 2012	Maine (caucus)
February 7, 2012	Colorado (caucus) Minnesota (caucus) Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri
February 28, 2012	Arizona (primary) Michigan (primary)
March 3, 2012	Washington (caucus)
March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)	Alaska (caucus) Georgia (primary) Idaho (caucus) Massachusetts (primary) North Dakota (caucus) Ohio (primary) Oklahoma (primary) Tennessee (primary) Texas (primary) Vermont (primary) Virginia (primary)
March 6-10, 2012	Wyoming (caucus)
March 10, 2012	Kansas (caucus) U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)
March 13, 2012	Alabama (primary) Hawaii (caucus) Mississippi (primary)
March 17, 2012	Missouri (GOP caucus) – *See note below on Missouri
March 20, 2012	Illinois (primary)
March 24, 2012	Louisiana (primary)
April 3, 2012	District of Columbia (primary) Maryland (primary) Wisconsin (primary)
April 24, 2012	Connecticut (primary) Delaware (primary) New York (primary) Pennsylvania (primary) Rhode Island (primary)
May 8, 2012	Indiana (primary) North Carolina (primary) West Virginia (primary)
May 15, 2012	Nebraska (primary) Oregon (primary)
May 22, 2012	Arkansas (primary) Kentucky (primary)
June 5, 2012	California (primary) Montana (primary) New Jersey (primary) New Mexico (primary) South Dakota (primary)
June 26, 2012	Utah (primary)

*Missouri: Missouri will hold a primary on February 7th, 2012, which will not count for delegates toward the 2012 GOP convention. The Missouri Republican Party will hold a caucus on March 17th, 2012, which will determine the delegates sent to the 2012 GOP convention – See report from CNN

Please contact us if you find an error in the primary schedule.

Page Last Updated: 11/15/2011

[getitright]

Indeed- didn’t I just read yesterday about concerns that even Newt may not make it onto the ballots in all state ballots? Someone starting fresh today would not have a prayer.

[jersey117]

He was quite impressive on Greta last night. He’d make an excellent VP candidate. I like Perry/West.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

Perhaps I'm prejudiced but my nominee would be Congressman Steve King of Iowa. This man is a bulldog--he is fearless and the way this cycle is proving to be the survival of the best debater, SK would be the one standing.

SK NEVER gets off track. There would be no surprises.

Watch for him today to question Holder. Get the popcorn.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

AMEN!!!!!!

[wildbill]

Ditto. Too many flaws in the front runners and even the middle runners. And who wants Huntsman?

The Republicans should be ashamed that this is the best group of candidates they can attract to this winnable race.