Black Swan

Vanity (long) ^ | December 10, 2011 | Nathan Bedford

[Texas Fossil]

Very good work my FRiend.

Some quotes were similar to work by Frederic Bastiat.

“Essays on Political Economy”

Go to: That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Not Seen

—

“In the department of economy, an act, a habit, an institution, a law, gives birth not only to an effect, but to a series of effects. Of these effects, the first only is immediate; it manifests itself simultaneously with its cause—it is seen.

The others unfold in succession—they are not seen: it is well for us if they are foreseen. Between a good and a bad economist this constitutes the whole difference—the one takes account of the visible effect; the other takes account both of the effects which are seen and also of those which it is necessary to foresee.

Now this difference is enormous, for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favourable, the ultimate consequences are fatal, and the converse. Hence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good, which will be followed by a great evil to come, while the true economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil.”

[Texas Fossil]

Gingrich himself calls this the most important election since 1860. I do not think that is an overstatement.

I went to our local City Hall yesterday to pay 2 water bills. While I was there a friend of mine from high school and I were talking about the MF Global mess and the issue of Derivatives. (he was not conversant about the subject, but had seen Corzine on TV) I told him then that we have not had such a corrupt Federal Government since Reconstruction. And that many of the ancestors of families in this town came to Texas because of that corruption. He seemed to understand, but I do not think he understood the gravity of our situation.

[blam]

"As this may be my last election, I will not go down that road again. "

I think we are to far gone and it won't matter who is elected at this point...or, whether it's a Democrat or a Republican even.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Black Swan event? Never heard that term. Does it have something to do with a bar in Houston?

The Black Swan:

The Impact of the Highly Improbable
 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The author takes the title from the fact that a swan used to be a by word for "white." And then some explorers found swans which were, incredibly, black.

One of the examples the author mentions of a "black swan" event was a Las Vegas casino which nearly went belly up. Not because of an adverse run of bad luck at the gaming tables, but because after the casino management prepared a mandatory report to the state gaming authorities, one of the execs put the report in his desk drawer and completely forgot that he hadn't filed it. So the authorities came down on them like a ton of bricks, and they nearly lost the casino. Again, it was nothing that management had any idea it could happen, or had happened, until it was too late. No probability table will tell you how likely or unlikely that is.

[catbertz]

I wont rant because I'm drunk, but at our core we are still strong. Our politicians suck and we've lost our way, but the majority of our cotizens are still strong if apathetic.

A Black Swan event wakes us from our daily lives to larger issues. To paraphrase a certain Japanese admiral something about waking the sleeping giant.

[zeugma]

Greetings. Great post. Make me think a bit, which is always a good thing. I hadn't really heard much about a 'black swan' event, so I looked it up on wikipedia before I finished reading your post so I could get a better handle on where you were coming from with it.

One point that I'd like to make is that right now, I see the nation on knife's edge with violence in the air depending upon which way things fall. I believe it is extremely unlikely that Obama will be reelected for another term. The mushy middle appears to be not quite so enamored with the class warfare rhetoric as they were for the hopey-changy hogwash he was selling last time.

The wildcard in our future that I see is that the powers that be appear to be purposefully trying to stir things up as much as they can with this OWS crap. They have worked some of these supposed 'anarchists' (I can't really call them actual anarchists because the only thing they seem to be for is ever-expanding government) worked into a frenzy. They've been brainwashed for decades to be the brownshirt cannon fodder needed by the elites to give them justification to clamp down hard on the citizens of this country.

The only thing that has kept us from having full fledged riots with cities burning is the fact that the powers that be don't want it happening on Obama's watch. I think they know Zero is toast, and want to make the riots and wholesale destruction they'll let loose on the new president appear to be spontaneous.

The biggest variable in all this is that in fanning these flames, they could very easily lose control of the fires they are starting, and it could sweep out of their control before they want it to. I think it's quite appropriate that the congress just passed a law declaring the entire CONUS as a war zone. It may well be a lot more obviously so a lot sooner than people expect.

[Domestic Church]

I call it a celestial spanking.

[Fiji Hill]

In Stratford-upon-Avon, England, a city located about 40 miles north of London, there’s a steakhouse with two names: the Black Swan and the Dirty Duck. I believe it opened as the Black Swan in the eighteenth century but over the years acquired the nickname the Dirty Duck, which it now prefers to use.

[tarheelswamprat]

Kudos and a thank you, nathan, for giving us such a thoughtful, and thought-provoking as well, essay on the dire dilemma confronting us in this new, but far less hopeful "time for choosing".

I always enjoy reading your commentary, although it usually evokes a sad touch of wistful nostalgia for the days of Free Republic's past when the quality and depth of analysis, writing and discussion you present was a much less rare commodity. Even when I disagree or believe you are wrong on something, I have great respect for the fact that your arguments are always presented with clarity and cogency.

One of my tongue-in-cheek pet quips I like to use is that "the Universe runs on irony". One of your closing comments provides an apt illustration of this "cosmic constant"... /g

"I do not think this is a time to choose the man on his conservative bona fides alone. I see Gingrich as the most electable of the acceptable conservatives and, above all, the man who has the best chance of coping with the Black Swan. I have made my decision to support Gingrich but I do not think I am doing so naïvely. I am aware of his faults, it is his qualities that compel me."

Like you, I am compelled by the inexorable logic of the circumstances to support Gingrich, despite his faults. Unlike you, and most others here, however, I fully expect Gingrich, should he be elected, to betray the trust the American citizenry are placing in him. I believe he is a wholly-owned asset of the establishment/oligarchy, and their designated Trojan horse backup should Romney fail. I sincerely hope and pray I'm wrong.

He is a man of immense intellect, experience and capability, but there's that irony in the fact that those qualities are a two-edged sword. If elected and presiding during the passage through the coming Black Swan events (I believe there will be more than one), the question will be in what direction he chooses to lead the nation.

He "might" choose to lead towards a restoration of freedom, individual rights and the Constitutional Republic (he certainly talks the talk), or he might choose to oversee the final consolidation of the new order. Phrased differently, the question is really "Who does he serve?" We will know soon enough.

[algernonpj]

... Like you, I am compelled by the inexorable logic of the circumstances to support Gingrich, despite his faults. Unlike you, and most others here, however, I fully expect Gingrich, should he be elected, to betray the trust the American citizenry are placing in him. I believe he is a wholly-owned asset of the establishment/oligarchy, and their designated Trojan horse backup should Romney fail. I sincerely hope and pray I'm wrong. ..

I believe your assessment is correct. Your question "Who does he serve?" can be answered looking at Gingrich's history. CFR member, Agenda 21 supporter, Gingrich, like Romney, is completely owned by the global political elite. Gingrich, like Romney, will do behind our backs what Obama is doing in our faces.

[algernonpj]

However I do not feel compelled to support Gingrich for the reasons in my prior post.

[Domestic Church]

I vaguely remember that steak house. I was more interested in the Bard’s home though. Very pretty area - I was there around 1970.

[Fiji Hill]

I was there in 1966 and got to see a performance of Hamlet.

[Domestic Church]

Nice! We did see A Mid Summer’s Night Dream but I can’t recall exactly where - it was a great production worthy of capturing on film. Saw “Home” with Ralph Richardson and John Gielgud in London that summer too.