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Don't pretend we know what causes climate change
Sun Media via Toronto Sun ^ | 2011-12-10 | John Robson

Posted on 12/10/2011 6:32:50 PM PST by Clive

Not only is the Kyoto Protocol technically flawed, the so-called science behind it is utter twaddle. Never mind complicated things like non-linear mathematics or, indeed, mathematics of any sort. The alarmists can't possibly know how to predict the future of Earth's climate because they can't explain its past.

At one point the UN's famous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tried to tell us the climate story was pretty simple. Their infamous "hockey stick" graph showed temperature constant for 1,000 years, then shooting up sharply in the 20th century as Industrial Man started pumping CO2 and other GHGs into the atmosphere. On top of the technical jiggery-pokery, this account brazenly misrepresented the past.

As the IPCC itself admitted in 1990, we've long known about a "Medieval Warm Period" starting around 1000 AD followed by a "Little Ice Age" from about 1600 until the mid-19th century. The former explains why the Viking settlement flourished then perished in Greenland. And slower tree growth producing denser wood during the latter may account for the superb resonance of Stradivarius violins. But whatever made the Medieval Warm Period warm, it certainly wasn't manmade GHGs. Nor did we cause the Little Ice Age.

So ask the warmers with their spuriously precise predictions of a "greenhouse effect" involving floods, famines, hurricanes a'blowin and a bad moon rising: Can you plug in known year 1000 data and have your computer model produce a Medieval War Period then let New Yorkers walk across the ice from Manhatten to Staten Island in 1780 and drop snow on Dickens' London Christmases? If not, why should anyone believe you can plug in year 2000 data and predict 2215 or 2875?

It's not just the Middle Ages. Can your models explain the sudden, irregular, dramatic temperature reversals that sent glaciers rampaging south then fleeing north about a dozen times over the last million years? Or anything else we actually do know about Earth's climate? For instance:

1. It has been highly variable, from the sauna-like Cretaceous (145- 65 million years ago) to the frozen snowball Cryogenian Period (850-630 million years ago).

2. It often changes suddenly, swinging wildly up and down, even within trend lines.

3. All previous changes were certainly not caused by man-made GHGs so the essence of Kyoto science is that whatever causal mechanisms drove climate change for 4 billion years were suddenly replaced a century ago by a whole new set for reasons no one has attempted to explain.

This uncertainty is not good news or cause for complacency. For instance the Younger Dryas, about 12,000 years ago, just as the last glaciation was ending, saw a terrifyingly sudden, precipitous drop in temperature, as much as two degrees per decade for half a century.

Were such a thing to occur today billions would die, mostly in poor countries. If you think warming is bad, imagine cooling. But that doesn't make me one of those fatuous people who say "bring it on" to global warming. Gentle warming clearly has benefited mankind since the ice age ended but a dramatic increase would not. Any sudden change would be very bad. The problem is, we have no idea what might cause it, when or how and even if we did we probably couldn't avoid it.

Did a cloud of interstellar dust trigger the dreadful Cryogenic snowball Earth? Well, the planet has no steering wheel. Do sunspots drive short-term temperature change (when they decrease so does the "solar wind" of charged particles, letting more cosmic rays reach Earth and promote formation of low-altitude clouds that reflect the sun's heat back into space)? Well, you can't regulate the sun.

Should we encounter sudden temperature change, the best defence would be wealth: productive resources able to replace failed agricultural systems, energy to heat or cool ourselves to survive new climatic patterns, new irrigation or drainage systems. The worst defence would be to inflict massive harm on our economies in pursuit of environmental phantoms.

It's not just that Kyoto couldn't stop man-made global warming if it were happening. It's that the whole process is driven by fake science.

If they can't explain the past they can't predict the future. And if they won't discuss the past, you know they can't explain it.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Technical
KEYWORDS: climatechange
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1 posted on 12/10/2011 6:32:55 PM PST by Clive
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To: steelyourfaith

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2 posted on 12/10/2011 6:34:43 PM PST by Clive
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To: Clive

Kyoto is nothing more than an direct economic attack on the United States. Simple as that.

The UN should be evicted from American soil.


3 posted on 12/10/2011 6:40:36 PM PST by Captain7seas (FIRE JANE LUBCHENCO FROM NOAA)
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To: exg; Alberta's Child; albertabound; AntiKev; backhoe; Byron_the_Aussie; Cannoneer No. 4; ...
John Robson ping.

From the article:

"Should we encounter sudden temperature change, the best defence would be wealth: productive resources able to replace failed agricultural systems, energy to heat or cool ourselves to survive new climatic patterns, new irrigation or drainage systems. The worst defence would be to inflict massive harm on our economies in pursuit of environmental phantoms."

4 posted on 12/10/2011 6:40:36 PM PST by Clive
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To: Clive

Kyoto is nothing more than an direct economic attack on the United States. Simple as that.

The UN should be evicted from American soil.


5 posted on 12/10/2011 6:40:45 PM PST by Captain7seas (FIRE JANE LUBCHENCO FROM NOAA)
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To: Clive
Sun Media's Toronto Sun doesn't know what causes climate change?
6 posted on 12/10/2011 6:41:34 PM PST by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: Clive
Don't pretend we know what causes climate change

Call me crazy but I have a suspicion that a good part of it is caused by that big burning ball of gas in the sky.

I know it is far fetched.

7 posted on 12/10/2011 6:43:16 PM PST by Harmless Teddy Bear (*Philosophy lesson 117-22b: Anyone who demands to be respected is undeserving of it.*)
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To: Clive

“Don’t pretend we know what causes climate change>”

####

Don’t have to pretend.

Its Almighty God.


8 posted on 12/10/2011 6:46:13 PM PST by EyeGuy (2012: When the Levee Breaks)
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To: Clive
MMGW/Climate Change is simply a ruse to help ram through an ideology. And these phonies have now been caught lying, yet they simply try to forge ahead as if they haven't been found out.
9 posted on 12/10/2011 6:49:43 PM PST by Major Matt Mason (The Chicago Way isn't the American Way.)
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To: Clive; Berlin_Freeper; SolitaryMan; golux; SteamShovel; Bockscar; Thunder90; rdl6989; marvlus; ...
Thanx for the ping Clive !

 


Beam me to Planet Gore !

10 posted on 12/10/2011 6:52:17 PM PST by steelyourfaith (If it's "green" ... it's crap !!!)
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To: Clive

BTTT.


11 posted on 12/10/2011 6:53:07 PM PST by Inyo-Mono (My greatest fear is that when I'm gone my wife will sell my guns for what I told her I paid for them)
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To: Clive
Since the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age are not predicted by computer models, they never happened. You surely are not going to believe the historical records, are you?

Or, even if they did happen, it was George Bush's fault.

12 posted on 12/10/2011 7:00:29 PM PST by sima_yi ( Reporting live from the People's Republic of Boulder)
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To: Clive

Off axis orbital tilt.


13 posted on 12/10/2011 7:01:21 PM PST by rawcatslyentist (It is necessary that a person be born of a father who is a citizen; ~Vattel's Law of Nations)
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To: Clive

I happened to have one of the evening news alphabet news stations on this evening. They started with how the weather was changing due to climate change. Then they started with flooding, tornadoes, and a storm that “brushed” the east coast and caused flooding. All due to “climate change”. And it’s gonna get worse!
No hurricanes in 3+ years so they blame all else on climate change.
Idiots run amuck........


14 posted on 12/10/2011 7:06:23 PM PST by 9422WMR
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To: Captain7seas

“The UN should be evicted from American soil.”

Most certainly, and I’ll add from the face of the Earth actually. If the U.N. continues to exist in any form anywhere in the World it will continue to be a tool of the Left to advance their impaired perspectives upon the rest of us.

It’s gotta go buh bye completely.


15 posted on 12/10/2011 7:26:53 PM PST by rockinqsranch (Dems, Libs, Socialists, call 'em what you will, they ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.)
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To: Clive

Clive, thanks for posting this one. I sent it to many on my email list. Good one.


16 posted on 12/10/2011 7:29:08 PM PST by rockinqsranch (Dems, Libs, Socialists, call 'em what you will, they ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.)
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To: Clive

The November AMO index goes negative, first time since 1996. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index has gone negative for this past month, see the graph above. This is the first time the November value has been negative since about 1996. It appears the down cycle has started. This portends a cooler period, especially winters.


Read the rest here.
17 posted on 12/10/2011 7:40:58 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: Captain7seas

Exclusive: UN Climate Draft Text Demands ‘New International Climate Court’ to compel reparations for ‘climate debt’ — Also seeks ‘rights of Mother Earth’ & 2C° drop in global temps
UN Draft Text Demands: The West will pay ‘climate debt’ because of its ‘historical responsibility’ for causing ‘global warming’ — UN seeks end to wars to ‘protect the climate system’
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/14072/Exclusive-UN-Climate-Draft-Text-Demands-New-International-Climate-Court-to-compel-reparations-for-climate-debt—Also-seeks-rights-of-Mother-Earth—2Cdeg-drop-in-global-temps

The UN is demanding control over $1.6 trillion per year to control climate.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/10/latest-extortion-attempt-from-durban-1-6-trillion/


18 posted on 12/10/2011 7:48:44 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: Clive

We know what causes climate change.

The Sun and the orbit of the Earth both of which can’t be controlled by man.


19 posted on 12/10/2011 7:51:32 PM PST by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: 9422WMR

I caught that also. According to them, basically everything was caused by some form of global warming, er, climate change.


20 posted on 12/10/2011 7:57:44 PM PST by matt04
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