Don’t forget that Howard Dean had it “all but wrapped up” in 2004 but the Dem party elite wanted something else and pushed Kerry. And in 2008, Hillary seemed to be a lock at this time in the campaign with Barry coming up from behind. And on the R side, Giuliani looked pretty good until he decided to sit out Iowa and NH and it was too late by the time the primary got to him sitting waiting in Florida.
Let the primaries play out. There are a few candidates that can still pull this off, not just Newt and Mitt. Michelle Bachman is from Iowa and won the Iowa straw poll in the summer. She has a good ground force there and could still make a good showing. Momentum builds and those further back in the pack pull out. Nothing is decided until the primaries and then the election in November is anybody but 0bama.
“Newt Gingrich vs. Mitt Romney — Has It Really Come Down to This?”
It may if the conservative candidates decide to continue to split the conservative vote between themselves and then drop out without supporting the conservative candidate who stays in. That is the likely scenario, seems to me.