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Doomsday war games: Pentagon's 3 nightmare scenarios
csmonitor ^ | Anna Mulrine, Staff writer

Posted on 12/13/2011 10:45:44 AM PST by BenLurkin

Pentagon planners have plenty to deal with these days – Iran in search of nuclear-weapons technology, suicide bombings in Afghanistan, and the final pullout of US troops in Iraq potentially leaving behind a security vacuum in the Middle East. But in war games in Washington this week, US Army officials and their advisers debated three nightmare scenarios in particular. Here are the doomsday visions that Pentagon planners have been poring over....

(Excerpt) Read more at csmonitor.com ...


TOPICS: War on Terror
KEYWORDS: economy; eduspending; freetrade; manufacturing; northkorea; pakistan; redchina
1. Collapse of Pakistan 2. Rise of militant China 3. Collapse of North Korea
1 posted on 12/13/2011 10:45:55 AM PST by BenLurkin
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To: BenLurkin

I’ve heard that Pakistan keeps their warheads on the move because they fear the US has them targeted and are more concerned with that than the security issue of moving them.
If that is true..then this doomsday is more likely to happen.


2 posted on 12/13/2011 10:50:31 AM PST by Oldexpat
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To: BenLurkin

My nightmare scenario is Obama wins re-election and nominates Barney Frank to be Sec. Defense.


3 posted on 12/13/2011 10:52:12 AM PST by jakerobins
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To: BenLurkin

1. White House unwillingness to defend American interests.
2. White House killing critical defense programs.
3. White House reducing troop strength below critical thresholds.


4 posted on 12/13/2011 10:52:25 AM PST by G Larry ("I dream of a day when a man is judged by the content of his Character.")
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To: Oldexpat

It is true. They even transport them in unmarked, civilian vehicles to avoid attention.

http://www.newser.com/story/132586/pakistan-constantly-moves-nuclear-weapons-in-unprotected-vans.html


5 posted on 12/13/2011 10:53:19 AM PST by maquiladora
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To: BenLurkin

4. Re election of obummer.


6 posted on 12/13/2011 10:53:31 AM PST by pfflier
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To: BenLurkin

for the US, Iran is a trivial worry compared to Pakistan. Iran is diverting too much attention from serious dangers to our security included the danger of an uncontrolled southern border.


7 posted on 12/13/2011 10:55:16 AM PST by Colonel Kangaroo
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To: BenLurkin

I would add:

4) Collapse of Russia/Nukes seized by members of the religion of Peace.

5) Mexican Drug Cartels seize control/purchase nuke to stall US invasion

6) OWS purchasing nuke thru Soros connections/Threaten to destroy US if ‘election results of 2012’ are not in their favor.


8 posted on 12/13/2011 10:59:36 AM PST by Le Chien Rouge
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To: BenLurkin
1. Collapse of Pakistan 2. Rise of militant China 3. Collapse of North Korea

How about all three simultaneously. Pak's islamic radicals decide they've sufficiently infiltrated their military to make a move towards gov't overthrow. This is followed by open beligerance with India. US responds by moving many assets to Pak coast and Diego Garcia. NK decides that with US assets being syphoned into the Indian Ocean it would be a good time to make a run to Seoul. Chicoms, meanwhile, thinking in parallel reasoning decide US is stretched beyond the limit and go for Taiwan. US finds itself in a go-nuke or go-home situation in multiple locations.

9 posted on 12/13/2011 11:00:48 AM PST by Paine in the Neck (Where's he getting these ideas? He's not smart enough to be that stupid all by himself.)
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To: BenLurkin

1. Obama doesn’t leave WH/Civil War II.

2. Iran barge shoots nuke/EMP over US/China and Mexico invade West Coast/Southwest, Panama Canal not accessible

3. Strait of Hormuz nuked and/or blocked with sabotaged/attacked tankers


10 posted on 12/13/2011 11:07:54 AM PST by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: BenLurkin

I nominate Saudi Arabia also as a potential game changer.


11 posted on 12/13/2011 11:10:23 AM PST by BuddaBudd (F U B O)
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To: G Larry

Number Four: Iran builds its nuke and launches on Tel Aviv.


12 posted on 12/13/2011 11:12:44 AM PST by colorado tanker
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To: G Larry

These are supposed to be theoretical scenarios. Your list is playing out before our eyes.


13 posted on 12/13/2011 11:18:04 AM PST by nixonsnose (Let's see all you lawyers argue your way out of hell.)
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To: jakerobins

well, he is a rear admiral.


14 posted on 12/13/2011 11:22:01 AM PST by WOBBLY BOB (Congress: Looting the future to bribe the present.)
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To: BenLurkin

#1 is by far the biggest concern. #2 is not a real problem - China has too many internal problems that a sudden impulse toward military adventurism wouldn’t even put a dent in. #3 is likely to end quickly - a North Korean implosion would make the country very weak, and South Korea and China would likely step in quickly to stabilize the nuclear situation. But Pakistan is unfixable, and perhaps even uncontainable.


15 posted on 12/13/2011 11:24:27 AM PST by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: BenLurkin

Islamist forces thru Mexico hit Palo Verde Nuclear plant knocking out power to millions in the Southwest U.S.


16 posted on 12/13/2011 11:25:07 AM PST by atc23 (The Confederacy was the single greatest conservative resistance to federal authority ever.)
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To: BenLurkin
1.Islam (anything that is related)

2. Re-election of Obammy.

Border war with Mexican Drug Cartels while Obammy (any Democrat) is in office.
17 posted on 12/13/2011 11:44:43 AM PST by Dallas59 (President Robert Gibbs 2009-2011)
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To: BenLurkin

Surprised at the list of the three mentioned for the games. Sometimes that thinking thing hurts. Spidey senses going off, and don’t see a spider.


18 posted on 12/13/2011 11:46:41 AM PST by no-to-illegals (Please God, Protect and Bless Our Men and Women in Uniform with Victory. Amen.)
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To: atc23

EMPs, or another scenario and multiple attacks simultaneously would be cause to not have a trial for the perpetrators (imho). Guess I lack compassion.


19 posted on 12/13/2011 11:52:00 AM PST by no-to-illegals (Please God, Protect and Bless Our Men and Women in Uniform with Victory. Amen.)
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To: BenLurkin

1. Iranian Scud-in-a-Bucket EMP attack off the East Coast

2. Collapse of Mexican Government as country is overrun by drug lords and their Iranian Hezbollah allies.

3. Aggressive ChiCom naval campaign in the Pacific (see, Japan, December, 1941) daring us to do something about it.


20 posted on 12/13/2011 12:03:46 PM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: BenLurkin
4) Iran declares they have several nuclear ballistic missiles and intend to usher in the age of the al-Mahdi, shuts down the straits of Hormuz and threatens anyone attempting to take retaliatory action with launching all missiles at Israel and oil fields of Saudi Arabia.

Is this scenario even plausible?

21 posted on 12/13/2011 1:04:20 PM PST by OB1kNOb (The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty. - Prov 22:3)
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To: no-to-illegals

If there is chaos and no communication, plus scores of opportunistic follow-on events, how would you or anyone even know who the perps might be?


22 posted on 12/13/2011 1:06:58 PM PST by reformedliberal
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To: OB1kNOb

Eminently plausible, IMO.


23 posted on 12/13/2011 1:08:44 PM PST by reformedliberal
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To: Mr. Jeeves

My main concern re: #2 is the serious gender inequality there, and historical willingness to “correct” demographics thru war attrition.


24 posted on 12/13/2011 1:13:49 PM PST by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com/)
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To: BenLurkin
Unfortunately, I don't see any scenario that FReepers posted that would be mutually exclusive.

Strap yourself in, it's going to be a bumpy ride...

5.56mm

25 posted on 12/13/2011 1:15:55 PM PST by M Kehoe
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To: BenLurkin
Collapse of Mexico.

-PJ

26 posted on 12/13/2011 1:17:37 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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To: BenLurkin

Who ordered the planning?


27 posted on 12/13/2011 1:22:14 PM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 ..... Crucifixion is coming)
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To: maquiladora
Reminiscent of the Cold War US nuclear doctrine.

Tactical (cannon artillery) nukes in the field were supposed to be just another round of ammo. No special signature to give away what units might be carrying them - The Prescribed Nuclear Load (PNL).

Of course we had permissive action links that required release codes from the NCA. I doubt the Paks have such safeguards.

28 posted on 12/13/2011 2:30:11 PM PST by SargeK
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To: reformedliberal
In relation to post #19, flight path. In relation to multiple attacks simultaneously not involving EMPs, once more flight path or hole-up location. The enemy would be foolish to consider attacks (imho), though enemies are most of the time ...
29 posted on 12/13/2011 5:34:49 PM PST by no-to-illegals (Please God, Protect and Bless Our Men and Women in Uniform with Victory. Amen.)
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To: reformedliberal
In the olden days ... think it was called *moving toward the sound of the guns.* Guess the same principle could be applied in a world gone mad, minus communication.

My apology for a second post.

30 posted on 12/13/2011 5:49:23 PM PST by no-to-illegals (Please God, Protect and Bless Our Men and Women in Uniform with Victory. Amen.)
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To: no-to-illegals

No apology necessary.

I suppose the folks in the Big Bunkers will have some way of determining origins. But I can see scenarios where someone has managed to kill satellites and there so many lines of attack that no one has a clue.

Which must be why it is titled *Doomsday*.

I think I will go hide under something, now.


31 posted on 12/13/2011 7:42:07 PM PST by reformedliberal
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To: BenLurkin

“Collapse of Pakistan” is not really a nightmare scenario. Pakistan has been slowly crumbling and collapsing for a while now. The real nightmare scenario is a rise of a Iran-Pakistan nuclear superstate backed by Pakistan. The downing of the drone in Iran has set off a militant fervor across both Iran and Pakistan. And China has explicitly stated their intention to launch WWIII if Iran is attacked.The real nightmare situation will be when US will have to fight against giant armies on multiple fronts. Pakistan, China and North Korea don’t have small armies like Iraq and Afghanistan.


32 posted on 12/14/2011 8:58:16 AM PST by ravager
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To: BenLurkin

Correction: ..... Iran-Pakistan nuclear superstate backed by CHINA.


33 posted on 12/14/2011 8:59:30 AM PST by ravager
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