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The Gingrich Gamble
National Review ^ | 12/14/2011 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 12/14/2011 6:42:52 AM PST by Servant of the Cross

All the Romney-alternatives — Bachmann, Cain, Christie, Giuliani, Palin, Perry, Rubio, Trump — came and went, or never came at all, except the most unlikely one, Newt Gingrich. With the implosion of the Cain campaign, and the realization that there are for now no more great conservative hopes on the horizon, Gingrich has pulled off one of the more unlikely comebacks in presidential-primary history, and finds himself ahead in the Republican polls.

Half the Republican electorate is relieved, or even delighted, about Gingrich. They are sure that almost any Republican could beat an imploding Barack Obama, who gets weirder with each rant about the rich. Why then not nominate a brilliant, imaginative, and exciting live-wire chatterbox like Gingrich?

They have bitter memories of sober, staid incumbent Jerry Ford, who nosed out an ascendant Ronald Reagan in the primary but then blew the general election against an inept leftist, Jimmy Carter. They have worse memories of another sober, staid plodder, Bob Dole, who was trounced by Bill Clinton, an incumbent who had not won 50 percent of the vote in 1992 and had been repudiated in the midterm elections of 1994. And they have memories that are worse yet of John McCain, who, in the fashion of Ford and Dole, was outdebated, outcharmed, and outhustled by Barack Obama.

No más! these conservatives scream. They insist that, despite his often non-Reaganesque record, Gingrich is about the closest thing they are going to get to Reagan for some time to come. They assert that they would rather risk losing than elect a centrist Republican who might nominate another Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court or add another entitlement like the unfunded Medicare prescription-drug benefit. (snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gamble; gingrich; vdh
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Good discussion and analysis by VDH. However, he completely overstates the similarity of Newt and Mitt (Newt has at times been a brilliant conservative; Mitt never has, never will) and also misstates that the Left hate both (they love Mitty because they know how to beat him silly). They absolutely fear, and thus hate, Newt. How else to explain the asinine Chicago Way of Axelrod and monkey butts?

GOP POTUS2012 is not ideal but it is what it is - Newt vs. Mitt. As Secretary Rumsfeld once said, "You go to war with the army you got". Clearly it is Newt. Go Newt!

1 posted on 12/14/2011 6:42:57 AM PST by Servant of the Cross
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To: neverdem; IbJensen; Deb

VDH ping.


2 posted on 12/14/2011 6:48:49 AM PST by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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To: Servant of the Cross

In the Mitt vs. Newt battle, VDH seems to be saying “6 of one; half a dozen of the other”.


3 posted on 12/14/2011 6:57:35 AM PST by Sans-Culotte ( Pray for Obama- Psalm 109:8)
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To: Servant of the Cross

Just to be safe, we better elect a ton of Tea Partiers to both houses of Congress to help keep Gingrich from going off the reservation.


4 posted on 12/14/2011 6:59:59 AM PST by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all -- Texas Eagle)
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To: Servant of the Cross
The point is that Romney is not a fighter...he's an appeaser. Obama and Axelrod will fight like the Chicago street thugs they are and they will destroy Romney.

Gingrich on the other hand is a tough fighter and brilliant strategist. Gingrich will twist Obama and Axelrod into pretzels and then snap them into salty shards.

5 posted on 12/14/2011 7:03:07 AM PST by RoosterRedux (Gingrich quoting George Washington: ' Victory or Death')
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To: Texas Eagle

Dont worry house and senate tea party members will be squeezed by the establishment...just like this last time.

Once Bohner gets a hold of them they will fall in line.

The progressive and establishment republicans win again. The country fails and falls.


6 posted on 12/14/2011 7:07:49 AM PST by CSI007
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To: Servant of the Cross

In the famous Bachman quip:

Newt/Romney we win!

Third party we lose!


7 posted on 12/14/2011 7:10:24 AM PST by parisa
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To: Servant of the Cross

Funny that Gingrich was struggling in single digits, barely rising above 10%, for 6 months after he first announced.

If he is so great, why didn’t he jump to the head of the pack early on, like Romney did, like Bachmann did, like Perry did, like Cain did.

He better watch out, however, Ron Paul is on his heels in Iowa.

Hmmmm. Maybe the Great White-haired Hope isn’t so Great after all.


8 posted on 12/14/2011 7:10:24 AM PST by TomGuy
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To: Sans-Culotte
He does seem to stay neutral, and if so he's wrong about that by giving Romney too much benefit of the doubt. He suggests that the individual voter's make-up will decide but also infers (I think) that the times we are in call for Gingrich.

The risk-takers, romantics, and ideologically pure have concluded that Gingrich unleashed is worth the gamble, and that it is better to win big or lose big than to plan on just squeaking by.

9 posted on 12/14/2011 7:10:32 AM PST by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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To: Texas Eagle
>> to help keep Gingrich from going off the reservation <<

You're dreaming the impossible dream. The “new Newt” doesn't exist. He's still the same old Gingrich. His character flaws and his poor management skills caused his GOP colleagues to oust him from the Speakership in 1998, when he was already 57 years old. Anybody’s core character traits and personal habits are basically immutable at that age. Ask any elderly spouse who has tried to “reform” his or her partner at that stage of life!

In other words, Newt hasn't changed and he can't be reined in by a GOP-led Congress. It's the height of naivete to believe otherwise.

But really, we're basically wasting our time on such analysis because Newt will never be elected POTUS. The only question is whether he will self-destruct before the GOP convention -- or after he gets the nomination.

10 posted on 12/14/2011 7:13:56 AM PST by Hawthorn
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To: TomGuy
If he is so great, why didn’t he jump to the head of the pack early on ...

Because he's NOT "so great". He's the last man standing. A result of a process of elimination. It's him or Mitt. I'm guilty of being a pragmatist.

And I do think that Newt could end up being great. I KNOW romney won't and that 0bama would beat him anyway.

11 posted on 12/14/2011 7:24:06 AM PST by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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To: CSI007
I don't agree with that premise.

Newt will take Boehner to the woodshed, BIG TIME.

Newt has the experience and the ability to slap the RINO establishment to it's knees. He will gladly single them out and embarrass them on their insider records. This IS the way he will force them into compliance.

The biggest point is, they fear Newt and are trying desperately to got Romney nominated. If Romney wins, the cookie jar will remain wide open. If Gingrich wins, the cookie jar will not only close, they will get their naughty little pinkies spanked and their cookies will all go away permanently.

Newt owes them definite payback for how the GOP establishment treated him in the ‘90’s, as well how they pandered to Clinton, protected him and played “nice” to the Democrat minority. (Like they did in 2002)

12 posted on 12/14/2011 7:36:55 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (If you come to a fork in t,he road, take it........)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Newt will take Boehner to the woodshed, BIG TIME.

Two words:

Dede Scozzafazza
13 posted on 12/14/2011 7:47:41 AM PST by SoConPubbie
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To: Sans-Culotte

I don’t think he’s saying that at all. In fact, I thought it was a thinly veiled, hit-job on Gingrich and his supporters. I think that this silliness which these so-called impartial, political-analysts perpetrate ought to end. If you support one candidate over another, come right out and endorse him! Don’t give any pretense of being anything other than a fan.


14 posted on 12/14/2011 7:58:30 AM PST by old school
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To: Servant of the Cross

Very good article and discussion...thank you for posting it.


15 posted on 12/14/2011 8:18:17 AM PST by truthkeeper (Vote Against Barack Obama in 2012! (That's my story and I'm sticking to it.))
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To: Sans-Culotte
Who knows at this early juncture who is right, or what fresh man or woman on horseback is still over the horizon? All that really matters is that those who detest Gingrich’s past recklessness and present instability, and those who are repelled by Romney’s calculated and constructed persona, nevertheless find both preferable to Barack Obama

Interestingly, VDH joins the growing crowd who voices the usually unthinkable -- that somehow, some way, another candidate, not yet in the race perhaps, may yet emerge and take the nomination.

16 posted on 12/14/2011 8:34:06 AM PST by fightinJAG (So many seem to have lost their sense of smell . . .)
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To: RoosterRedux
Gingrich on the other hand is a tough fighter and brilliant strategist. Gingrich will twist Obama and Axelrod into pretzels and then snap them into salty shards.

I know the first sentence is correct. As for the second one all obummer has to say is, "Don't bring a knife to a gunfight".

You know that Newt will be coming with all the weapons that are possible.

I don't know the outcome, because voter fraud will be rampant, but he is the best chance we have right now.

17 posted on 12/14/2011 8:34:06 AM PST by USS Alaska (Nuke The Terrorist Savages)
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To: Texas Eagle
Just to be safe, we better elect a ton of Tea Partiers to both houses of Congress to help keep Gingrich from going off the reservation.

This is the most important part of the 2012 elections, although I really don't think Newt is on the "reservation" if by that you mean the conservative reservation. However, I am losing any faith in so called "Tea Party" candidates making any difference, we are spending just as much money we don't have now as we did before the 2010 elections.

The real evidence that the Tea Party might have been just so much talk: Pre-Tea Party = McCain, Post-Tea Party = Gingrich. No improvement, no change.

18 posted on 12/14/2011 8:43:05 AM PST by Prokopton (.)
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To: RoosterRedux
Gingrich on the other hand is a tough fighter and brilliant strategist.

Please, you might like Gingrich, but this is way over the top. The "brilliant strategist" presided over the worst out of office midterm election in over 40 years. The "brilliant strategist" also could not come up with a strategy to get most of the provisions of the Contract with America passed. The "tough fighter" got mad and quit, shortly after he was reelected, when he did not get his way in the House.

If Gingrich is the candidate, it will be a hard and close election with Obama. To see it as anything else is naive.

19 posted on 12/14/2011 8:54:05 AM PST by Prokopton (.)
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To: truthkeeper; C. Edmund Wright; nathanbedford
Thank you. I liked this one too which had similar analysis but with a more definitive conclusion.. Good discussion at that thread as well since some of the best (imho) FR posters are there.
20 posted on 12/14/2011 9:08:33 AM PST by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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