[wolfman23601]

Newt is slowly fading. Perry and Bachman are slowly rising, but not fast enough to get a conservative candidate with 3 weeks to go. Mitt and Paul are not moving and won’t.

What is happening is what I predicted as early as the summer. The anti-Mitt vote is going to be split so many times, Mitt is going to walk away winning with 25%.

If Newt is to win, he NEEDS to hold onto Iowa or he will have no momentum to carry SC.

If Perry is to win, he has to finish 2nd at worst in Iowa behing Newt (neither Ron Paul or Mitt can win Iowa). In this scenerio, he can probably stay in long enough to pick up enough of Newt’s eroding support to make a play in SC.

If Paul or Mitt win Iowa, it is over. Romney waltzes.

[TexasFreeper2009]

California Republican Presidential Primary

PPIC

Gingrich 33, Romney 25, Cain , Paul 9, Perry 4, Bachmann 7, Santorum 4, Huntsman 2

Gingrich +8

Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary

Susquehanna

Gingrich 35, Romney 18, Santorum 18, Cain , Paul 8, Bachmann 6, Perry 2, Huntsman

Gingrich +17

[mikhailovich]

That’s a pretty decent assessment.

[AdamBomb]

"Newt is slowly fading. Perry and Bachman are slowly rising,"

Some of you are so delusional you see things that don't even exist! Newt has held pretty strong at around 30% outside of the propoganda polls like PPP. Reuters and AP polls taken on the 12th have Newt at 28 and 33 respectivly. On the 11th, WSJ had Newt at 40. There is no data except the bogus Huffpo PPP poll to suggest you are right.

[AdamBomb]

"newt is slowly fading..."

Righhhhhhhhhht

[af_vet_rr]

Newt is slowly fading. Perry and Bachman are slowly rising, but not fast enough to get a conservative candidate with 3 weeks to go. Mitt and Paul are not moving and won’t.

Not really. Perry and Bachmann got a little bump from Cain leaving, but not as much as people believed they would.

Plus Gingrich appears to be hurting Romney, something Bachmann, Perry, and Cain were never able to do. That's the big surprise, and that has me interested, because we have to get past Romney first, then Obama, and I don't think Bachmann and Perry can do that. Newt's not close to my first choice, but he's better than Romney.

[Sun]

4 years go Giuliani and Huckabee were the two front runners, so anything can happen.