RCP Average IOWA: Newt 27.2%, Bishop Romney 18%, Paul 16.7%

RealClearPolitics.com ^ | staff

[Notwithstanding]

Includes latest Rasmussen outlier.

[OCCASparky]

Good. Here’s hoping the RCP averages are the real indication and that Paul finishes (at best) fourth. That should take the wind out of the old kook’s sails.

[VanDeKoik]

Apparently the Mitt fan-girls will need to hyperventilate a bit harder to keep Paul from passing him.

[allendale]

Best to go with Newt. He is the most articulate, intelligent, and experienced candidate. Despite his past mistakes ( nobody with a forty year public career is without blemish),he will take it to Obama, make the country realize what is at stake and will win in November 2012.

[uncbob]

That includes a lot of older polls

Rasmussen is the latest

Bad news for Newt

[swampfox101]

Not to worry, Newt will win. The tea party folks will not allow the establishment to pick another moderate looser like Mittens.

[TBBT]

You can’t ignore this poll. The media certainly won’t. They’ve harped non stop on the PPP poll since it came out.

Perception is reality. Bandwagon effect is very powerful. Ignorant masses will be herded. Momentum is key. This poll and the PPP poll can do great damage to Newt’s momentum.

At best, this poll - in conjunction with the PPP poll - makes for great drama and headlines. Even if there is another poll out today with contrary results it won’t matter. These two polls will rule the day.

At worst, these polls will be used - by the establishment/media - to influence the outcome. Powerful tool for shaking the confidence in a Not Romney candidate.

[xzins]

Not bad news for Newt in any serious way. The average probably is a better measure.

Most important:

Rasmussen has not revealed, or it has not been made public, how he is weighting his sampling of Iowa caucus goers.

In a national poll against a democratic opponent, we are told how many democrats and how many republicans went into the result. We would know the books were cooked if a poll had 800 democrats and 200 republicans.

We are not told how many conservative, moderate, and liberal republicans go into Rasmussen’s numbers.

Since Iowa has been controlled by a very large group of conservative Christians for a number of cycles now, they should be the lion’s share of the sample.

We are not told.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Anyone remember if Rasmussen called Huckabee even getting close last cycle in Iowa?

[true believer forever]

Newt Gingrich's 21st Century Contract With America

Part 1:  Legislative Proposals

1. Repeal Obamacare 
    
2. Return to Robust Job Creation
    
3. Unleash America’s Full Energy Production Potential
    
4. Save Medicare and Social Security
    
5. Balance the Federal Budget
    
6. Control the Border by January 1, 2014 
    
7. Revitalize Our National Security System
    
8. Maximize the Speed and Impact of Medical Breakthroughs
    
9. Restore the Proper Role of the Judicial Branch
    
10. Enforce the Tenth Amendment

Part 2:  Day One Executive Orders 

• Eliminate the thirty-nine White House "Czar" positions
   
• "Mexico City Policy" of Respect for Life

• Restore conscience clause protections for Healthcare Workers

• Respect Each Sovereign Nation’s Choice of its Capital
   
• End the Attorney General's Assault on the States

• The Keystone Pipeline

 

Download Newt Gingrich's Contract with America

 

Because he knows where the bodies in DC are buried...

(and lots of other reasons, too)

[uncbob]

average probably is a better measure.

NO

Go look at the polls
The average includes the older polls

[xzins]

YES.

You must read the reason I say that the average is a better number.

Without weighting, then the average will become a kind of weighting of the poll.

[InterceptPoint]

Unfortunately you are right about the older polls. Using RCP polling methodology in a dynamic situation like Iowa is not good practice. Just watch the polling and the trends.

The negative ads in Iowa are having their effect. Tonight's debate will be watched by a lot of Iowa folk. That will affect the Iowa polling as well.

We live in interesting times. Get used to it Freepers.

[svcw]

Two polls posted back to back: Newt is winning, Romney losing. Romney is winning Newt is losing.

[deport]

Anyone remember if Rasmussen called Huckabee even getting close last cycle in Iowa?

---

Yep, sure did.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

[Burkean Buckleyite]

With luck, Paul will outdo Mitty and give the RINO a well-deserved black eye.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Thanks, good research. Normally he’s pretty good, but polling is as much art as science.

[Nonstatist]

Newt’s dropping. When’s the primary, Jan 3 ? Should be interesting until then..

[Mrs. Don-o]

Thanks for this.

I haven't made my mind up on Gi8ngrich yet, but it's always nice to see a fact-based post.