Another factor is that we are at the end of the quarter for unemployment filing.
How it works...
If you file in Oct-Nov-Dec they will calculate your unemployment benefit based on your earnings from Oct ‘10-Sept ‘11.
But if wait until Jan to file, it will be a new quarter and they will calculate based on Jan-Dec. Meaning if you got a raise/new job in mid year etc you would get a larger benefit.
My wife for example was just laid off and we are waiting 3 weeks to file in Jan as opposed to filing now. Her salary was greater from Jan-Dec vs Oct-Sep.
>>Another factor is that we are at the end of the quarter for unemployment filing.<<
The numbers are seasonally adjusted. That means that patterns that recur every year like clockwork get seasonally adjusted out. The phenomenon you describe, if it actually does affect behavior, is one of those that would be adjusted for.
We need to come to grips with the possibility that the economy is improving and that we will not have the economy of the past 3 years to campaign on. That will make it tougher, but anticipating it will help. Ignoring it or denying it will just cause us to go into the campaign with blinders on and we’ll look like fools trying to deny the obvious (by that time, if growth continues, as it is likely to do.)
Good point. Of course, there must be some people whose Oct. 2010-Sept. 2011 income was higher and thus would prefer to file before Dec. 31.