Newt leads nationally but what does it matter? (Newt-35, Mitt-22, Paul-11, Bachmann-7, Perry-4)

PPP ^ | 12/20/2011 | PPP

[Wallace T.]

If you ignore Romney and Paul, as their support is largely outside the conservative community, it is evident that after Perry and Cain crashed, Gingrich has become the conservative leader. Provided that Gingrich does not shoot himself in the foot, it is likely Perry, Santorum, Huntsman, and Bachmann will drop out before January 31st. Their supporters are almost one fifth of the electorate. While the Huntsman support will go to Romney, the rest will likely go to Gingrich. As Santorum and Bachmann are hard core social conservatives, a fraction of their supporters will likely sit the primaries out, as Gingrich, Romney, and Paul are not strong social conservatives. It would be reasonable to estimate that 75% of the support for the dropouts will go to Gingrich. That will push Gingrich's support to the 40-45% range going into the big state primaries. Assuming Paul will be a weak third or lower in South Carolina and Florida, the softer supporters of the libertarian will fade away and he will be back into the single digits. With a Paul fadeout, Gingrich may go from a plurality to a majority. At that point, with a few victories under his belt, Romney may decide to strike his tent, perhaps settling for a vice presidential position or secretary of state, as Hillary did four years ago.

[chris37]

I don’t have any doubt that polls are being used as mind control, they always have been.

I do know this. I have a bunch of conservatives family members and close friends. All of them were Cain supporters, none of them are Newt supporters, including myself.

Anecdotal I know, but it is what it is.