This is the first closing of a “sea gate” in quite awhile.The last time I believe it was Suez back in the 70’s. Come to think of it the islamists have the ability to close a number of other sea gates now.
They haven’t closed it. They’re practicing it. If they shut the straight down it would have to be selective as the Chinese receive oil through there.
Both Iran and Iraq selectively targeted each others gulf commerce during the Iran-Iraq war.
I look at this in the same light except also adding area denial to coalition ships which is probably their first priority. Once the coalition is denied transit they could start selective boarding and passage denial.
Win or lose all depends on operating orders -their’s and the coalition’s. Whoever backs down will lose control of the straights. If Iran wins it could regulate commerce or even blockade nations.