[CainConservative]

That's why I said TUESDAY JAN 3rd will be your wake up call.

Or mine if either of the three second tier conservatives BEAT the first tier conservative. Which I highly doubt but we'll see.

I've come to the personal conclusion after being a Huckabee, Bachmann, Perry, and Cain staunch supporter this cycle... Gingrich/Rubio '12 & '16 ain't that bad in ANY way compared to Obama/Romney!

But to each their own.

[Crichton]

Obviously the polling is fluid.

But the latest polls in Iowa do suggest two tiers:

First Tier
Paul 22.3%
Romney 21.0%

Second Tier
Gingrich 14.7%
Perry 12.0%
Bachmann 8.7%
Santorum 7.7%

The first tier seems pretty solid, and the second jumbled. I would bet on one second tier candidate faring poorly enough to leave the race, but not much beyond that. One second tier candidate could break 20% - or not. One conservative candidate could break out - or not.