Posted on 12/27/2011 1:25:30 PM PST by TitansAFC
AMES, Iowa -- A new Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll of 333 likely Iowa Republican caucus goers finds Ron Paul in the top spot among GOP presidential candidates with 27.5 percent, followed closely by Newt Gingrich with 25.3 percent. Paul's lead over Gingrich is within the poll's margin of error at plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Mitt Romney is in third place at 17.5 percent, while Rick Perry is the only other candidate to poll in double digits at 11.2.
While Paul's lead is just over 2 percentage points and easily within the poll's margin of error, it may actually be more solid than it appears.
"What our poll says is that 51 percent of Paul's supporters say they're definitely backing him," said James McCormick, professor and chair of political science at Iowa State and coordinator of the poll. "The percentage for the next two candidates is much weaker, at 16.1 for Mitt Romney and 15.2 for Newt Gingrich. Moreover, the percentage of respondents 'leaning to' or 'still undecided' in their support for these latter two candidates remains high, at 58 percent for Gingrich and 38 percent for Romney. In other words, I'm going to make the case that these numbers are still very soft for those two candidates."
"I think Paul probably under-polls," said Dave Peterson, interim director of the Harkin Institute of Public Policy at Iowa State and associate professor of political science who assisted with the poll. "His supporters are younger and more likely to reply on a cell phone, so he's probably going to perform better than his polling suggests. His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds."
With less than two week to go until the Jan. 3 Iowa Caucuses, the race still remains remarkably fluid. Asked how certain they were of their choice, 37.8 percent of respondents indicated that they were still trying to decide and another 34.1 percent answered that they were only leaning towards one candidate. Only 28.1 percent indicated that they had definitely decided who they would support.
"Because we surveyed the same likely caucus goers in November [data collected between Nov. 1 and 13], these results do indicate some movement to strengthening the commitment to a particular candidate," McCormick said. "In November, only 16.5 percent indicated that they had definitely committed to a candidate....
This poll is almost a week old.
Even if Paul wins Iowa, I doubt he will win little else. I should hope most Americans are smarter than that.
“I think Paul probably under-polls,”
“His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds.”
Heard all of this crap in 2008, too.
Turned out much of this Ron Paul “Support!” was actually LaRouche Democrats, Libertarians, and Internet nutjobs who can’t actually VOTE in an Iowa Republican Primary.
And a media intent on doing as much damage to the Republican Brand as possible, to elect the god-like Messiah Obama.
GO GINGRICH!
Ultimately, what Iowa does will be irrelevant,
but I still find it hard to believe they will go for Ron Paul.
With our without RP, Iowa caucus is meaningless. It should be shunned into the dustbin of primary history. I wish that candidates would pass it by next time.
Correct, but it’s as valid as the week old polls Faux shows.
Did anyone vett Romney? Were his parents US citizens at time of his birth?
Very important! If Romney is NOT a natural born citizen, we can remove him by bringing it out in the open and get to obumo at the same time!
From author of obamatimeline -
‘Mitt Romney’s parents were, I believe, born in Mexico, to Mormon missionary parents. It is a possibility that Mitt Romney may also not be a natural born citizen, depending on whether his parents became U.S. citizens before he was born. His family owned property in Mexico, and in those years you had to be a Mexican citizen to own property.
That is possibly why Obama desperately wants Romney to be his opponent. Like McCain, his natural born citizen status is questionable. If both candidates have the same problem, Obama has less of a problem.’
Excellent point. Thank you.
Romney will be done after a disappointing finish in NH. Only 2 of 3- Bachmann, Santorum, and Perry will survive Iowa. I think it will be Newt, Perry, Santorum, and Paul going into South Carolina. sC will take care of Paul. Newt and Santorum should see an influx of cash once the field narrows to battle Perry in Florida.
His parents were also missionaries and Lodge was born in China. There wasn't any fuss about it at the time and I cannot see any trouble with this either.
Every time I see a poll that claims Ron Paul is ahead I wonder what is wrong with America!!
What. You want to go from a socialist to a nut case?
We pray for America every day!
I’m a Gingrich supporter, but false hope is not productive. A poll from 12/21 is near-worthless.
Those Iowans who should know better had better get out and work harder to keep the Kook off the ticket.
Mitt’s father George, was born in Mexico -
a child born in Mexico to U.S. citizens is a Mexican citizen, under Mexican jurisdiction.
Under Mexican law, such a child is a natural born Mexican citizen.
When George Romney was brought back to USA as a child, George needs to be naturalized to be US citizen. Was he ever naturalized? If not, then he was a Mexican citizen when Mitt was born, and Mitt is NOT a natural born citizen.
Obumo knows this and wants to run against Mitt so they can confuse everybody again!
Gingrich should point this out and start a debate on whether Mitt and obama are article 2 natural born citizen! That should kill 2 birds with 1 stone!
Seems we went through this shiite four years ago with McCain.
‘There wasn’t any fuss about it at the time and I cannot see any trouble with this either.’
Of course there won’t be any trouble with this now either, because they want to keep obumo! Mitt’s nbc issue will never see the daylight just like obumo’s!
That is the sad part - they are trying hard to set precedent! And we let them!
If we let them then we might as well tear up the constitution.
There is a reason campaigns campaign in Iowa. True, Iowa doesn't always pick the winner, but it is early, and that can mean much to a campaign.
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