He’s saying what Intrade says also, and probably because he read their numbers. I hope he’s wrong, but I think he wants to look realistic. I’d prefer someone who worked to change the future instead of trying to look smart for accepting a disastrous future.
Here’s the deal as I see it: sometime in the next three years, the real crap is going to hit the fan in the financial markets, especially the bond market. For those who doubt it will happen, look at how quickly the European bond markets went ape this year. It can and does happen quickly.
This is going to happen to the US now with any POTUS who does not make at least $500 to $1,000 billion in real cuts in the next term.
We know, a priori, that neither Obama nor Romney will make those cuts in the real spending. Therefore, I believe it is best to lay the disaster at the feet of a Democrat. Just as the GOP was stupid to put Der Ahnuld into California and not fix the real problems, it will be stupid to own the problems at a Democrat national level and not fix them.